????布魯克林研究院（Brookings Institution）的一份報告指出，隨著美國聯邦政府資助的枯竭，清潔能源高新技術產業將在今年年底面臨“資金斷裂”之憂，使這個為數不多的能帶來就業增長的行業面臨危機。

????當一項產業是由不穩定的政府資金資助時，就會遇到這種危機。（與之相對比的是，農業和石油等產業一直能獲得穩定的政府資金投入，盡管它們可能并不需要這些資金。）

????目前業界“缺乏對清潔能源經濟的標準定義以及數據”，布魯克林研究院發表了名為《詳解清潔能源經濟：（美國）國家及地區綠色工作評估報告》（Sizing the Clean Economy: A National and Regional Green Jobs Assessment）的文章，力圖解決這一難題。

????舉例來說，什么是“綠色工作”？給出一個定義確實很難。報告對“清潔能源經濟”和“清潔能源高新技術產業”進行了區分。前者“能比化石能源產業雇傭更多的員工”，但如果你知道“清潔能源經濟”的雇員還分布在公共交通和制造業等成熟產業中時，你也許會頗為驚訝。從2003年到2007年，清潔能源經濟的增長速度要比美國經濟總體增長率低很多，不過以太陽能面板、燃料電池、生物燃料等為代表的清潔能源高新技術產業卻經歷了“爆炸性增長”，即便是在經濟衰退期，它們的表現也要強于美國整體經濟。

????不過這種增長能否繼續下去尚無定論。這個問題很大程度上取決于政府。隨著州級政府財政面臨破產之虞，以及聯邦資助消失殆盡，清潔能源高新技術產業似乎將不可避免地面臨崩盤。不久前，布魯克林研究院的德文?斯維澤預測崩盤即將來臨。他的解釋非常簡單，“清潔能源仍要比煤和石油昂貴得多，而且可靠性也不如它們。清潔能源之前一直依賴政府補助降低銷售價格，不過隨著政府大力進行預算緊縮，這種補貼即將難以為繼。”

????高昂的價格會嚴重影響社會對清潔能源相關產品的需求，所以補貼必須是長期而穩定的，直到整個產業具備“造血”能力，能夠進行自我發展才可。不夠規律的進行資金“輸血”，將會使整個產業在繁榮和蕭條間起伏波動。現在，我們就即將面臨蕭條。

????而格外令人沮喪的是，由于聯邦政府不能提供穩定而長期的資金支持，許多美國清潔能源高新技術公司正在轉而尋求來自中國的投資。可與此同時，美國政客們卻還在為白熾燈爭論不休。

????譯者：項航

????As federal stimulus spending dries up, the clean tech industry faces a "funding cliff" at the end of this year that could jeopardize one of the few economic sectors that is producing job growth, according to a report issued by the Brookings Institution.

????Such is the peril when an industry is supported by fickle government financing (as opposed to the more reliable, if far less needed, government financing enjoyed by industries like agriculture and petroleum).

????The report, "Sizing the Clean Economy: A National and Regional Green Jobs Assessment," is an attempt to address the fact that there is an "absence of standard definitions and data" about the

????For example, what are "green jobs," anyway? It's not so easy to define. The report distinguishes between the "clean economy" and the "clean tech industry." The former "employs more workers than the fossil fuel industry," which might sound surprising until you learn that the "clean economy" includes people working in mature industries like mass transit and manufacturing. The clean economy grew more slowly than the national economy between 2003 and 2007, but the clean-tech sector – which includes makers of solar panels, fuel cells, biofuels and the like – saw "explosive growth" and outdid the economy as a whole during the recession.

????But whether that growth can continue is an open question. It largely depends on government – and with states going broke and federal stimulus funds going away, it seems almost inevitable that there will be a clean-tech crash. Devon Swezey of The Breakthough Institute put it succinctly when he recently made the hard prediction that a crash is coming. "Clean energy is still much more expensive and less reliable than coal or gas," he wrote, "and in an era of heightened budget austerity the subsidies required to make clean energy artificially cheaper are becoming unsustainable."

????When high prices put a heavy lid on demand for socially desirable products, subsidy has to be long-term and reliable – in place until the industry can sustain itself, and finance its growth privately. Semi-regular infusions of cash tend to create booms and busts. Right now, we're headed for a bust.

????A particularly dispiriting outcome of all this is that in the absence of a firm, long-term commitment from the federal government, many U.S. clean tech firms are looking to China for investment. Meanwhile, we're arguing over light bulbs.