????親愛的卡洛斯?戈恩先生：

????我剛剛讀到有關貴公司6年商業計劃的新聞，你們設定的業務增長和贏利目標可謂雄心勃勃。這不免讓我有些感到意外。

????我深知，從1999年的日產復興計劃（Nissan Revival Plan）開始，您就擅長設定并達到看似不可能實現的財務目標。

????但是，與日產以前的商業計劃周期相比，6年長出了一倍。誰知道，到2016年，您（或者我）是否還健在呢。您經常對我說，在兩個大陸管理兩家汽車公司[您同時還在法國的雷諾汽車公司（Renault）擔任日常管理工作]不會是項長期工作。盡管您看起來一直應付自如，但到2016年，您就63歲了。

????如今這年頭兒，設定宏偉的、野心勃勃的計劃已然成了一種時尚。大眾公司（Volkswagen）就不斷地提醒我們：到2018年，他們要在美國銷售100萬部汽車，成為世界上最大的汽車公司。但是，我還是忍不住會想起某位著名經濟學家的話。他說，他寧愿只預測一個數字或者一個日期，而不是同時預言二者，因為那樣的話，很容易出錯。

????事實上，除了設定全球增長目標外，貴公司還有其他許多事有待解決。盡管最近日產的美國市場份額取得了顯著的增長，但你們在這一市場的基礎仍然過于薄弱。

????而且，你們在美國的銷售也極度失衡，真是危機四伏。在美國，日產基本上可以叫做Altima汽車公司。5月份，貴公司在美國市場的客車銷售量中，Altima所占的份額超過了一半。換言之，Altima一款車的銷量超過了日產在美國市場銷售的其他八款車的總和。

????英菲迪尼（Infiniti）的情況更糟：在轎車和卡車的總銷售額中，G-car所占的份額超過了半數。但求老天保佑，你們的轎車或者卡車千萬不要陷入類似豐田公司（Toyota）的召回事件。果真那樣的話，銷售會土崩瓦解，經銷商亦會揭竿而起。

????此外，日產的產品線質量參差不齊，其中小型貨車和全長敞篷小貨車的市場慘敗尤其刺眼。事實上，只有靠電池驅動的聆風（Leaf）能代表日產汽車，而這塊業務與其說是生意，不如說是愛好來得更恰當。您在新的6年計劃中承諾，到2016年，日產及您的合作伙伴雷諾公司要生產150萬部電動車。讓我們拭目以待，看這個計劃能否最終實現。

????在我看來，貴公司不應該推出如此宏大的6年計劃，反而應該設定一些短期目標，比如提高產品質量，那樣對客戶而言更富有實際意義。市場研究機構J.D. Power公司進行的周期分別為3個月和3年的質量研究報告顯示，日產均位居倒數第三?！断M者報告》（Consumer Reports）的數據顯示，在13家汽車廠商中，日產排在福特公司（Ford）和現代公司（Hyundai）之后，名列第8，而且只有63%的日產汽車獲得了消費者的推薦。

????貴公司的6年商業計劃中還有其他幾件事引起了我的注意：

????與其他汽車廠商一樣，貴公司在中國的業務多于在世界其他任何地區。因此，中國消費者的需求和中國市場的要求對日產產品決策的影響將日益增加。

????你們預計，日本和歐洲的業務不會出現絲毫增長。這表明，上述兩個地區眼下經歷的經濟災難不會很快結束。

????你們例數各類新技術，并且準備每年在自己的新產品中應用其中數個（未來6年共有90多個）。我很欣賞這個思路。但是，我很想弄明白，這否意味著你們對主動巡航系統和高清廣播等量齊觀。我個人認為，消費者并未將這二者等同視之。

????戈恩先生，你們在發表6年計劃的聲明中表示：“日產動力88是項很難實現的商業計劃，但我們公司在實現極具挑戰性的目標方面，成績卓著?！贝搜酝耆珜賹?，但這回這個目標實在太宏大了。讓我們拭目以待，看看你們能否將之變為現實。

????阿萊克斯?泰勒敬上

????另還有一件事：“日產動力88”計劃聽起來有點像某種能量飲料的名字。如果你們真的想登天摘月的話，“日產占領全球的計劃”聽起來可能更為恰當。

????譯者：大海

????Dear Mr. Ghosn,

????I was surprised to read about your six-year business plan with its very ambitious growth and profitability goals.

????I know you have had great success setting impossible financial targets and then meeting them, starting with the original Nissan Revival Plan in 1999.

????But six years is twice as long as your previous plans, and who knows if you (or me, for that matter) will be around in 2016. You have often told me that trying to run two car companies on two different continents (France's Renault is your other day job) is not a long-term job description. Although you seem to be holding up remarkably well, you will be 63 years old by then.

????Big ambitious targets are fashionable these days. The folks at Volkswagen can't stop reminding us about their plans to sell one million cars in the U.S. as part of their plan to become the world's largest car company by 2018. But I can't help recalling the words of the eminent economist who said he was willing to forecast a number or a date -- but not both -- because it made it too easy to prove him wrong.

????It isn't as if you don't have plenty of other things to work on besides global growth. Although Nissan has been making some nice market share gains in the U.S. lately, its base here is anything but solid.

????Its sales are dangerously unbalanced. Nissan in America is basically the Altima Car Company. The Altima accounted for more than half of your U.S. passenger car sales in May. Put another way -- By itself, the Altima outsold all eight other models that Nissan sells in America.

????The situation is even worse at Infiniti, where the G-car accounts for more than half of car and truck sales combined. Heaven help you if either one of these vehicles should get caught in a Toyota-like recall situation. Your sales would collapse, and your dealers would revolt.

????Elsewhere the Nissan product line is very spotty, with your failures in minivans and full-size pickups especially conspicuous. In fact, it is difficult to think of any vehicle that symbolizes Nissan except for the battery-powered Leaf, and that is more a hobby than a business. How Nissan and your partner Renault are going to move 1.5 million EVs by 2016, as you promise in the plan, will be something to see.

????Instead of your grandiose six-year plan, you could have put in place some shorter-term goals that would mean more to your customers -- like improving quality. Last time I looked, Nissan ranked in the bottom third of both the 90-day and three-year J.D. Power quality surveys. Consumer Reports ranks you eighth out of 13 manufacturers, behind Ford (F, Fortune 500) and Hyundai among others and only recommends 63% of your vehicles.

????A couple of other things in your announcement caught my eye:

????? Like other automakers, you do more business in China than anywhere else, and the demands of Chinese consumers and the requirements of the Chinese market will increasingly drive your product decisions.

????? You are anticipating no growth at all in Japan and Europe. That suggests that the economic woes they are both experiencing won't soon be coming to an end.

????? I like the way you count new technologies and roll out a measured number of them each year (90-plus in the next six years), but I wonder if that means you give equal weight to, say, active cruise control and high-definition radio. I don't think consumers see them that way.

????As you said in your statement, Mr. Ghosn, ''Nissan Power 88 is a demanding business plan, but our company has a proven record of achieving challenging objectives." All true, but this one is huge. We'll see how this all works out for you.

????Respectfully yours,

????Alex Taylor

????P.S One more thing: "Nissan Power 88" sounds like the name of an energy drink. If you really are shooting for the moon, "Nissan's plan for global domination" might be more appropriate.