????雖然空客（Airbus）無疑是上月巴黎航展的贏家，但波音（Boeing）仍不可小覷。維勒班特（Le Bourget）展會上空客A320neo機型拿下了創紀錄的訂單，說明這家歐洲飛機制造商已然成功俘獲現有航空公司客戶的芳心。盡管空客在展會上出盡風頭，但依然無法染指波音的核心客戶群。因此，在單通道機型----這一競爭最為激烈、利潤最為豐厚的市場領域，雙方勝負仍未見分曉。

????如今，波音的客戶似乎在觀望波音將如何處理737這一老一代單通道主力機型。但觀望的時間是有限的，空客和很多新的國外競爭對手，例如中國，正加緊步伐籠絡波音主力客戶。波音需果斷出擊，否則只能眼看著自己最忠實的客戶，諸如美國航空（American Airline）和歐洲瑞安航空（Ryanair），將大額訂單送入競爭對手的囊中。

????單通道機型很少受到媒體的關注，但它卻是飛機制造商最重要的搖錢樹。空客的巨無霸A380機型以及波音的劃時代787機型的出現具有深遠的意義，但事實上這種機型并不太賺錢。波音737機型為公司在商業航空領域創造了40%的營業收入以及超過一半的營業利潤。而空客最新巨無霸A380機型在銷售利潤上仍是顆粒無收。

????飛機制造業賴以生存的根本并非大型越洋機型，而是每天多次往返于紐約與休斯頓之間，或倫敦、馬德里之間的小型客機。這些機型所帶來的現金流使得飛機制造商有充足的資金來進行研發，并打造出拉風的新機型。這并不是說大型機型對航空公司的業績不重要，只是它們難以成為這個行業的生力軍。

????過去的幾年中，人們在巴黎航展上最為關注的是那些火爆的新產品。然而，今年的展會上，主力機型獨領風騷。空客已將A320的新型號A320neo提上銷售日程。A320neo機型主打“選擇新引擎”理念。顧名思義，機型本身沒有重大的改動，只是裝載了新引擎。空客新機型的賣點就是“集效能改進之大成”，與老機型相比油耗降低15%，因此飛行距離更遠，載貨能力更強。很明顯，空客這次是用老瓶裝新酒。

????盡管新機型要在2015年秋天才能正式服役，但空客客戶對其已是追捧有加。空客僅在展會上就拿下了667架的大單，市場總價約609億美元。如今，空客已收到1，029架新機型訂單，這也使得該機成為民航史上最為暢銷的機型。

????由于超出預期訂單數近半，展會上這一票巨額訂單讓分析師們大跌眼鏡。訂單排行榜中，亞洲航空公司首當其沖，其中包括總部位于馬來西亞的亞航（AirAsia），下單200架。印度尼西亞國家航空公司鷹航（Garuda）也加入了預訂大軍，并下單15架。

????大多數其他的訂單來自于空客的老主顧，像JetBlue航空公司（JBLU），預訂了40架新機。分析師和內部人士認為唯有鷹航的15架空客機型訂單會讓波音大受打擊，因為幾十年來，鷹航一直是波音的忠實擁躉。

737機型升級成疑

????鷹航這一核心客戶的準倒戈似乎并未引發芝加哥波音公司管理層的擔憂。同樣，他們對于展會上波音737新型號800和900RE所取得的僅71架訂單的成績也并不介懷。波音在很長一段時間內都沒有推出過737的重大改款機型，因此訂單上的平平反應也就完全在預料當中。大額訂單往往伴隨著新機型的出現而出現，波音在最近6年都沒有推出過737這一主力的新款機型。

????新機型盛裝登場的日子遙遙無期。近幾年，波音公司似乎將全部精力投在了嚴重難產的中型機型787的開發中，該機終于在今年夏末正式服役。

????波音深知新737機型的推出迫在眉睫，但是該公司仍未確定到底是重新設計，亦或采用787機型新合成材料來建造，還是干脆給老鋁合金機身配一副低油耗新引擎。巴克萊資本（Barclays Capital）分析師卡特?科普蘭德向《財富》雜志（Fortune）透露，重新設計新機型可能至少需花費150億美元。他認為737當今的機型已十分成熟，因此花費大量財力重新設計該機型對于波音來說并不一定劃算。

????科普蘭德說：“事實上，設計新機型會帶來大量財務和技術風險。波音對此需要有十足的把握，因為這種項目是‘拿公司作賭注’。”

????這也是波音舉棋不定的根本原因。科普蘭德認為波音最多還有一年的時間來做這個決定，但屆時也很有可能為時已晚。有跡象表明一些波音公司最忠實的擁躉已開始與其競爭對手互通聲氣。

????波音的核心客戶群仍為大型美國航空公司。數十年來，美國航空 (AMR, Fortune 500)一直是波音及麥道（McDonnell Douglas，1996年被波音收購）的忠實擁躉。盡管美國航空公司也曾為其旗下美國之鷹航空（American Eagle）購買過用于區域運輸的非波音機型飛機，但美國航空，顧名思義，將首選美國制造的飛機作為其干線運營機型。

????美國航空目前正重新整編機組，并準備淘汰八、九十年代購買的幾十架老麥道-80機型。公司仍有300架麥道-80飛機服役。但自2008年以來，公司已開始啟用新737s取代老麥道機型，并于2009年和2010年預訂了119架新737-800s機型。

????美國航空公司的飛機換代需求仍然很大。但這家總部位于達拉斯的承運商不僅僅只是眷顧波音。有消息人士透露，新的低油耗A320neo機型備受公司管理層青睞。該人士還說，為促成合約，空客當仁不讓地亮出了超低折扣價。

????業界曾預計美國航空公司將在巴黎航展上拋出其大額訂單，結果卻不了了之。有報道稱該公司計劃購買250架新機，總額達150億美元，且目前正同時與空客和波音緊密磋商相關訂單事宜。拉攏美國航空公司對空客來說是一場翻身硬仗，同時也為A320neo機型贏得一枚認證標志。其他美國承運商，諸如全美航空【US Airways (LCC, Fortune 500)】，美聯航（United Airlines）及達美航空【Delta Airlines(DAL, Fortune 500)】均采用空客和波音雙機型運營。這些公司的飛機都需要更新換代，新的收入來源，諸如行李托運費，在一定程度上解決了這些公司的訂金支付問題。

來自中國的競爭

????或許737s機型最大的威脅不是來自于空客，而是源于中國。2月份，其核心客戶瑞安航空，歐洲最大的廉價航空公司，宣布該公司正與中國商用飛機有限公司（Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China）商談購買200-400架新機。作為市場新丁，中國商用飛機有限公司有可能打破空客和波音雙寡頭壟斷的局面。瑞安航空目前采用的全是波音272、737s機型，且公司在2012年波音交付最后一架737飛機之前沒有新機訂單。2009年，該公司中斷了與空客和波音的談判，聲稱對以上兩公司飛機的定價不滿。

????以節約著稱的瑞安航空需要的是能滿足其廉價形象的機型。例如，該公司首席執行官邁克?奧雷爾對波音公司頗有微詞，原因是波音機型機載衛生間的門鎖做的不盡人意，公司無法藉此對使用衛生間的乘客收費。因此，他轉投中國購買廉價200座機型的舉動也就不足為奇了。瑞安航空至今還沒有決定是否與波音訣別，轉而牽手中國商用飛機公司，但有跡象表明該公司可能會去試試水。一旦瑞安航空成功在先，其他廉價航空公司在組建機組時都有可能緊隨其后投入中國商用飛機公司，而不是波音的懷抱。

????雖然瑞安公司有可能變節，但波音和空客對來自于中國商用飛機公司的威脅仍然不以為意。畢竟，中國還需要很多年甚至幾十年的時間才能成為商用航空領域有力的競爭對手。到目前為止，只有中國的航空公司預訂了該公司的C919機型飛機，而且第一架飛機將在2016年，也就是5年后才會投入使用。

????盡管5年時間看起來很長，但在航空業卻只是標準的中場休息時段。航空公司都是批量下單且旗下飛機也將服役多年。波音目前急需穩住其核心客戶，否則眼前客戶的流失將影響公司今后十年的業績。中國人仍然需要證明自己，但歐洲人已然表明，A320已經成為737最強有力的競爭對手。現在輪到波音當機立斷，拿出方案，應對neo機型的挑戰，否則其主力客戶將難免見異思遷，另結新歡。

????The Paris Airshow last month was a clear win for Airbus, but don't count Boeing out just yet. The record number of orders for the Airbus A320neo aircraft at Le Bourget shows the European aircraft maker's success in bringing its current airline customers back on board. But while it was an impressive showing, Airbus failed to make any meaningful inroads into Boeing's core customer base, leaving in place a deadlock between the two aircraft makers in the heavily competitive and extremely profitable single-aisle jet market.

????For now, it looks like Boeing's customers are waiting it out to see what the aircraft maker will do with its aging single-aisle workhorse, the Boeing 737. But Boeing shouldn't make them wait too long. Airbus, along with a new crop of foreign competitors, namely the Chinese, is aggressively pitching Boeing's anchor customers. Boeing may need to act fast or it could find that even its most loyal airline clients, like American Airlines and Europe's Ryanair, sign big multi-billion dollar contracts with a competitor.

????The single-aisle jet market hardly grabs the headlines, but it is the most important profit center for jet makers. So while Airbus' superjumbo A380 and Boeing's futuristic 787 are important, the truth is, they aren't the big money makers. Boeing's 737 aircraft accounts for around 40% of the jet maker's commercial aviation revenue and well over half of its profits. Meanwhile Airbus still hasn't made a profit from selling its new superjumbo A380.

????What keeps these aircraft industry going are the small jets that whisk people several times a day from New York to Houston or from London to Madrid -- not the big transatlantic jets. The cash flow generated by those projects allow the jet makers to splurge on research and development and roll out sexy new products. That's not to say that bigger jets aren't important to the bottom line, they just aren't the backbone of the industry.

????For the last few years all the attention at the Paris Airshow has focused on the sexy new projects. This year, though, it was all about the workhorse. Airbus offered up for sale its latest version of the A320, the A320neo, which stands for "new engine option." As the name suggests, the jet really isn't a major redesign, it simply has a new engine. Airbus is selling the new plane as an "efficiency improvement package," over older models with improvements including a 15% reduction in fuel consumption allowing it to go farther and hold more cargo. Airbus clearly didn't reinvent the wheel here.

????But Airbus customers went gaga over the new jet, which won't even be ready to enter service until the fall of 2015. There was a whopping 667 orders for the new jet at the show, worth around $60.9 billion at market-list prices. Airbus now has 1,029 orders for the new jet, making it the most popular model in civil aviation history.

????The sheer number of orders at the show shocked analysts, who were expecting around half that. Leading the way were several Asian airlines, like Malaysia-based AirAsia with 200 orders. Garuda, the Indonesia flag carrier, also got in on the action ordering 15 jets.

????Most of the other orders came from long-standing Airbus champions, like JetBlue (JBLU), which ordered 40 of the new jets. Analysts and insiders believe that the only real hit to Boeing was Garuda's 15 plane order, as the flag carrier had been staunchly Boeing for decades.

A 737 tune-up?

????The potential loss of Garuda as a core customer doesn't seem to be worrying Boeing's management in Chicago. Nor does the fact they received just 71 new orders for its latest 737 models, the -800 and -900ER, at the air show. Boeing hasn't introduced a radically different version of its 737 in some time, so it was expected to do poorly in the final tallies. Big aircraft orders usually come when there is a new model, and Boeing hasn't rolled out a new version of its 737 workhorse in six years.

????That's quite a long stretch to go without a gussied up new aircraft. The company seems to have focused all its energy in the last few years in launching its much-delayed mid-sized 787 aircraft, which finally enters service at the end of the summer.

????Boeing understands that it is time to roll out a new 737, but it hasn't decided if it should totally redesign the aircraft, possibly constructing it from the same futuristic composite materials used in the 787, or just slap a new set of fuel-efficient engines to its old aluminum body and calling it a day. It could take an estimated $15 billion or more to redesign the aircraft, Carter Copeland, the aerospace analyst at Barclays Capital, told Fortune. He argues that since the 737 is already so efficient in its current form, it may not be cost-effective for Boeing to make such a big capital expenditure to redesign the aircraft.

????"Frankly, there is a lot of financial and technical risk associated with doing a new airplane and Boeing need to be very comfortable with this because these are 'bet the company' type projects," Copeland says.

????This is at the root of why Boeing has yet to make a decision. Copeland feels that Boeing has up to a year to make the decision, but that may be too late. There are signs that some of Boeing's most loyal customers have started talking to the other side.

????Boeing's core customers are still the big U.S. airlines. American Airlines (AMR, Fortune 500) has been a loyal Boeing and McDonnell Douglas (acquired by Boeing in 1996) customer for decades. While it has bought non-Boeing planes for its American Eagle regional jet fleet, American, as its name suggests, prefers American-made aircrafts for its mainline fleet.

????The company is now moving to totally revamp its fleet as it moves to retire the dozens of old MD-80 jets it acquired in the 80s and early 90s. The airline at one point had 300 MD-80's up in the sky. But since 2008, the airline has moved to replace them with new 737s, ordering around 119 new 737-800s in 2009 and 2010.

????American's fleet is still in need of a major upgrade. But the Dallas-based carrier isn't just looking at Boeing. The new, more fuel-efficient A320neo, has caught the eye of management, according to a person briefed on the matter. Airbus is pushing hard, offering steep discounts to get American to sign on, this person said.

????American was expected to announce a large order at the Paris Airshow, but it never came. The company is reportedly in heated negotiations with both Airbus and Boeing at this time with plans to order 250 planes worth around $15 billion. Grabbing American would be a coup for Airbus and would put a seal of approval on the A320neo. That could influence other U.S. carriers to follow its lead. The other mainline U.S. carriers -- US Airways (LCC, Fortune 500), United Airlines and Delta Airlines (DAL, Fortune 500) -- already operate a mix of Airbus and Boeing jets. All of them are in need of an upgrade and finally have some money to put down a deposit -- thanks, in part, to all those new revenue streams, like baggage fees.

Competition from China

????The biggest threat to the 737s rein may not be from Airbus, but from China. Core customer Ryanair, one of the big European discount airlines, announced in February that it was in discussions with Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, COMAC, to acquire 200 to 400 new aircraft. COMAC is a brand new entrant in the market and has the potential to break the Boeing/Airbus duopoly. Ryan Air currently operates an all Boeing fleet made up of 272 737s and has no outstanding orders for new jets after it receives its last 737 from Boeing in 2012. The airline broke off negotiations with Airbus and Boeing in 2009 because it said it was unhappy with their pricing.

????Ryanair, known to be frugal, needs an aircraft that fits its deep discount image. For example, the airline's colorful chief executive, Michael O'Leary, is upset with Boeing for not making an effective locking system for its onboard bathrooms that would allow the airline to start charging its customers to use the toilet. So it isn't surprising that he would be in negotiations with the Chinese to produce a cheap 200-seat airplane. Ryanair has yet to make a decision on whether or not it will abandon Boeing for COMAC, but it looks like it might just take a chance. Other discount airlines, looking to replicate Ryanair's success, may be persuaded to go with COMAC instead of the Boeing 737 when building up their fleets.

????Notwithstanding Ryanair's possible defection, Boeing and Airbus seem unfazed by the COMAC threat. After all, it will take years, possibly decades, for the Chinese to become a credible threat in the commercial aviation space. So far, only Chinese airlines have ordered COMAC's prototype c919 jet, with the first jet set to go into service in 2016, five years from now.

????While five years may seem like a long time, it's actually pretty standard lag time in the aviation business. Airlines order jets in bulk and take possession of them over several years. That is why it's critical for Boeing to nail down its core customers now, as any loss today would affect its bottom line for the next decade. While the Chinese still have to prove themselves, the Europeans have already shown that the A320 has become a formidable competitor to the 737. It's now up to Boeing to decide how it will respond to the neo threat before any of its key anchor clients decides to get adventurous and try something new.