????雀巢（Nestlé）正在商談收購中國糖果制造商徐福記國際公司（Hsu Fu Chi International Ltd.）。如果交易拍板，這起交易有可能躋身為史上規模最大的外資收購中資公司的案例之一。不過雙方的談判還處于早期階段，而且尚不清楚這筆交易的目的是要將徐福記囫圇吞下，還是僅僅收購其部分股權。

????不過，現在已經有人在懷疑雙方是否能夠最終達成交易。媒體報道暗示，這樁交易可能會像可口可樂收購匯源果汁（China Huiyuan Juice Group）的交易一樣無疾而終。2009年，中國商務部（the Ministry of Commerce）拒絕了可口可樂收購匯源果汁的申請，理由是可能會催生壟斷。而且可口可樂的收購要約也激起了中國民族主義者的強烈反對，他們不想看到一個成功的國產品牌落入外國人手中。

????雀巢是世界上最大的食品公司，因其旗下的哈根達斯（Haagen-Dazs）和雀巢咖啡（Nescafe）等品牌而聞名于世。由于歐美國家經濟增長放緩，雀巢也和許多其他西方的大型企業一樣，趕赴新興市場“淘金”。徐福記目前的市值在26億美元。雀巢收購徐福記，成敗都有可能。不過必需得承認，大型收購非常復雜，很少有輕易成功的例子。

????不過中國市場研究集團（China Market Research Group）的常務董事雷小山認為，雖然可口可樂出價24億美元收購匯源果汁的交易失敗了，但是這起交易與雀巢收購徐福記的交易沒有可比性。不管是什么原因扼殺了可口可樂的交易，同樣的事情都不太可能在雀巢收購徐福記的交易中重演。

????比如雷小山指出，雀巢和徐福記的交易不太可能會受到壟斷問題的困擾，因為徐福記在中國糖果市場上的壟斷地位比不上匯源果汁對果汁市場的壟斷程度。當年可口可樂謀求收購匯源的時候，匯源在中國果汁市場上的份額達到了42%。相比之下，徐福記只占中國糖果市場的5%。不過由于中國糖果市場分化嚴重，這個比例仍然相當可觀，但是中國本土和外國其他的糖果制造商也都表現得很不錯。

????在說到雀巢對徐福記的收購意向時，雷小山表示：“我認為它不會受到（可口可樂收購匯源）那樣嚴厲的審查，也不會拉響警報。”

????外界認為，雀巢收購徐福記旨在打入中國日益增長的糖果市場。雀巢公司的總部位于瑞士，該公司正在想方設法增加它在新興市場上的銷量，并且希望在10年之內，將其新興市場銷售額從目前總銷量的30%提高到接近50%

????另一方面，徐福記也在努力強化自身品牌，同時也在與其他公司進行接洽。徐福記創立于臺灣，主要生產巧克力、糕餅和其他甜點，自從上世紀90年代初開始在中國大陸南方地區運營。

????和可口可樂收購匯源時一樣，這起交易也有可能點燃中國民族主義者的怒火，不過這要取決于雀巢與徐福記之間談判的嚴重程度。如果雀巢或者其他某家外國公司要收購徐福記的全部股份，這起交易就將躋身為有史以來最大的外資收購中資公司的案例之一，不過這起交易仍然要面臨中國監管機構這一關。

????英特華咨詢公司（InterChina Consulting）的北美部主任大衛?霍夫曼認為，雀巢對徐福記的收購不大可能引起民族主義者的怒火。英特華咨詢公司主要為在中國做生意的企業提供咨詢服務。霍夫曼認為，徐福記和匯源果汁是不同的，人們一般并不把徐福記當成一個中國大陸土生土長的大品牌，徐福記和臺灣的聯系更密切，而且是在新加坡交易上市的。

????雀巢與徐福記的談判結果如何，現在還有待觀察。目前，雀巢仍然在亞洲新興市場上不斷開辟陣地。今年四月，雀巢公司表示計劃收購銀鷺集團（Yinlu）的多數股份。銀鷺是中國最知名的地區性食品企業之一，也是一家家族企業，主要生產椰汁和罐裝的八寶粥。雀巢并沒有透露收購價格，不過有分析人士指出，這筆交易的收購價格預計在11億美元左右。這筆交易仍需獲得中國監管機構的批準。

????雀巢的確是在四處擴張。雀巢采取了比較聰明的做法，謀求收購相對規模較小的中國企業，而不是去追求那幾個家喻戶曉的大品牌。這種做法更容易博得中國監管機構的歡心。

????譯者：樸成奎

????In what could be one of the biggest foreign takeovers of a Chinese company, Nestlé SA is in talks to buy Chinese candy maker Hsu Fu Chi International Ltd. Discussions are in the early stages and it's unclear whether the deal would include acquisition of the entire company or a share of it.

????And yet, there's already skepticism circling any possible deal. Media reports have hinted that talks could take the path of a deal that went awry involving Coca-Cola (KO) and juice maker China Huiyuan Juice Group. In 2009, China's Ministry of Commerce rejected Coke's bid to acquire Huiyuan on grounds that the Atlanta-based drinks maker would unfairly dominate the market. Coke's bid also spurred a fury of nationalist opposition from Chinese who didn't want to see a successful homegrown brand land in foreign hands.

????Nestlé, the world's biggest food company known for brands such as Haagen-Dazs and Nescafe, is one of many big Western companies that have been looking to increase sales in emerging markets amid slower growth in the U.S. and Europe. The company's interest in Hsu Fu Chi, which is worth around $2.6 billion, could very well go in any direction. And admittedly, large-scale takeovers are complex and rarely easy to pull off.

????But it makes little sense for skeptics to bring the memory of Coke's failed $2.4 billion bid into the picture, says Shaun Rein, managing director of China Market Research Group. Whatever issues killed the Coke deal likely won't happen with Nestlé's bid to buy China's biggest confectioner.

????For one, Rein notes, there likely won't be a monopoly at issue because Hsu Fu Chi's dominance in China's confection market is not as big as Huiyan's control of the fruit juice market. When Coke pursued Huiyuan, the Chinese juice maker controlled about 42% of the country's pure juice market. By contrast, Hsu Fu Chi commands about a 5.5% share of China's confectionary market. That's still a sizable chunk given that the market is very fragmented, but local and foreign players have been doing well.

????"I don't see it getting the same scrutiny and raising the same red flags," Rein says about Nestlé's interest in Hsu Fu Chi.

????The deal has been viewed as a way for Nestlé to tap into China's growing confectionary market. The Switzerland-based company is looking for ways to increase sales in emerging market from about 30% currently to nearly 50% within a decade.

????At the other end, Hsu Fu Chi has been working to strengthen the company's brand and has been in talks with other companies. The Chinese candy maker, which makes chocolates, pastries and other sweets, was founded in Taiwan and has been operating in southern China since the early 1990s.

????Depending on how serious talks with Nestlé gets, negotiations could ignite nationalist outcries just as it did with Coca-Cola's negotiations with Huiyuan. A deal would likely have to pass Chinese regulators if Nestlé or another company acquires all of Hsu Fu Chi, making it one of the biggest deals by a foreign company in China.

????But the chance of Nestlé having to overcome nationalist fervor is unlikely, says David Hoffmann, North America director for InterChina Consulting, which advises companies doing business in China. Unlike Huiyuan, Hsu Fu Chi is not considered a key mainland Chinese brand but one more associated with Taiwan and traded in Singapore.

????It remains to be seen how negotiations will pan out. So far, Nestlé has continued deepening its grab onto the growing Asian market. In April, the company said it planned to acquire a majority stake in one of China's best-known regional food groups, Yinlu, a family-owned company that makes ready-to-drink peanut milk and ready-to-eat canned rice porridge. Nestlé didn't disclose the purchase price, but analysts have estimated it to be $1.1 billion. The deal still needs China's regulatory approval.

????Indeed, Nestlé is reaching far and wide. And it appears going after relatively smaller Chinese firms as opposed to the few big household names could put Nestlé in the favor of Chinese regulators.