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Hulu面臨出售難題

Hulu面臨出售難題

Dan Mitchell 2011-06-27
幾大電視網投入巨資打造了Hulu的在線視頻服務,但他們似乎并不滿意Hulu目前的發展。

????Hulu的股東和管理者現在想必非常沮喪。雖然觀眾們已開始從有線及衛星電視網絡轉投互聯網視頻,但這一趨勢過于緩慢而且充滿不確定性。制作商們并不是簡單地將節目全部搬上互聯網就萬事大吉了。他們不能得罪有線及衛星電視臺,因為目前只有這里才是來錢的地方。

????Hulu的股東正是節目制作商們,盡管他們在股東的位子上坐不了多久了。周三的《洛杉磯時報》(The Los Angeles Times)報道稱Hulu正在尋求出售。毫無疑問,這主要是因為Hulu目前一片混亂,這些股東不僅與有線及衛星電視臺沖突不斷,而且與Hulu的首席執行官杰克遜?基拉爾也存在沖突。沖突的焦點集中在應該播放多少商業廣告和視頻服務Hulu Plus的收費標準,現在Hulu Plus的收費僅為每月8美元。

????然而,正是這些沖突同時也可能會成為出售Hulu的最大障礙。Hulu賣不出去,至少賣不出好價錢,除非迪士尼(Disney)、康卡斯特(Comcast)和新聞集團(News Corp)等股東同意就長期節目播放達成協議【普羅維登斯資本(Providence Equity Partners)也持有Hulu一定股份】。不過達成協議僅僅是將現在的棘手問題推遲而已,仍然沒有人會愿意收購Hulu,除非它能繼續提供免費的最新電視節目。

????不過,至少有一家股東對Hulu有意,這就是新聞集團,據報道,后者即將與Hulu達成一份節目播放協議。雖然協議細節我們還不得而知,但Hulu極有可能同意在播放新聞集團旗下福克斯廣播公司(Fox Broadcasting)所有的節目時,投放更多廣告。目前,Hulu在視頻中插播的商業廣告數量僅為一般電視節目的一半。其它股東也希望能與Hulu達成類似協議。

????基拉爾一直強調,廣告少是Hulu吸引觀眾的主要原因之一。但股東們并不買賬。最起碼對它們而言,將觀眾吸引到Hulu并不重要,重要的是保住其所播放節目的市場價值,雖然隨著技術進步,這種價值正在不可避免地下滑。

????《洛杉磯時報》報道稱,股東們還提議,鑒于目前一些節目在電視上播放后第二天,Hulu就能提供,該網站應該在用戶觀看這些節目前,要求他們證明自己是有線或衛星電視節目的訂戶。否則,用戶必須多等一周時間,才可以觀看這些節目。

????相比于增加廣告,推遲節目播放可能會造成更嚴重的用戶流失,不過這對于改善Hulu和有線及衛星電視臺之間的關系大有裨益。然而,這也可能造成Hulu更難被出售。“第二天”內容也許是Hulu最大賣點,即便是比它龐大得多的競爭對手網飛公司(Netflix)也無法做到這點。

????議時,許可費用將會迅速水漲船高。

????雖然面臨種種難題,但彭博社(Bloomberg)表示,Hulu的估值也許將50倍于其收入,也就是說,將超過20億美元。

????鑒于種種不確定性,我們很難確定哪些公司會參與競購Hulu。不過據報道,雅虎(Yahoo)已表示有意參與競購,而亞馬遜(Amazon)自然也有可能加入競爭,因為該公司希望增加在線視頻的數量。

????譯者:項航

????It must be immensely frustrating to either own or manage Hulu. The viewing public is moving away from cable and satellite toward Internet viewing, but so slowly and uncertainly that programmers can't simply port all their shows online and be done with it. They have to keep the cable and satellite providers happy because for now, that's where the money is.

????And it's programmers that own Hulu, though not for long. The Los Angeles Times on Wednesday reported that Hulu is now on the block, no doubt largely because of the confusing morass of conflicts not only with cable and satellite providers, but also with Hulu's own CEO, Jason Kilar, over how many commercials to show and how much to charge for Hulu Plus, the service's premium offering that currently costs a paltry $8 a month.

????But it's those same conflicts that could make selling Hulu a big challenge. Hulu can't be sold -- at least not for a decent return -- unless it has long-term programming commitments in place from its owners: Disney (DIS), Comcast (CMCSA), and News Corp. (NWSA) (Providence Equity Partners also holds a stake). Making those commitments simply prolongs the headaches the owners are trying to relieve through a sale, but nobody will want to buy Hulu unless it still has fresh, free television shows to offer.

????Nevertheless, at least one owner, News Corp., is reportedly close to striking a programming deal with Hulu. The precise terms haven't been disclosed, but Hulu has apparently agreed to boost the amount of advertising it runs on programs owned by News Corp.'s Fox Broadcasting. Currently, Hulu runs about half the amount of commercials that are run on a typical show on TV. The other owners are expecting to strike deals as well.

????Kilar has long insisted that the smaller number of ads is a major driver of viewers to Hulu. The owners aren't buying it. Or at least, it's not as important to them to drive viewers to Hulu as it is to maintain the market value of their programming, even as technology is inexorably driving that value down.

????According to the Los Angeles Times, the owners are also proposing that Hulu begin demanding the viewers prove that they are cable or satellite subscribers in before they are allowed to watch new programs on Hulu the day after they are shown on TV. Without such proof, viewers would have to wait an additional week before they could watch.

????That might do more than packing on ads to discourage viewership, but it would go a long way toward mollifying the cable and satellite providers. And yet, it might also make Hulu much harder to sell. Next-day content is perhaps the chief draw of Hulu -- it's something that even its much-larger rival Netflix doesn't do.

????Another complication: once the owners are no longer also the suppliers of programming, licensing fees will almost certainly shoot up down the road when new agreements are made.

????Nevertheless, Bloomberg reports that Hulu might be valued about 50 times earnings, or more than $2 billion.

????Given all the uncertainties, it's hard to know which companies might make a play, but Yahoo (YHOO) has reportedly already expressed interest, and Amazon (AMZN), which wants to increase its online video offerings, would also be a natural bidder.

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