穆迪警告可能下調意大利評級
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????上周五穆迪(Moody's)宣布可能下調意大利主權債務評級，原因是歐洲政府債臺高筑，“市場信心非常脆弱”。自從今春希臘債務危機爆發以來，這是首次對一家財政狀況相對較好的歐洲經濟體發出下調評級警告。 ??? 穆迪表示，隨著投資者日益回避風險，當前評級Aa2(為第二高評級)的意大利若不提高利率，國債可能就會賣不出去。 ??? 10年期意大利國債最近收益率報4.8%左右，低于近期西班牙國債5.6%的收益率，但比去年秋季的意大利國債收益率已高出整整一個百分點，當時投資者因擔心通縮而紛紛購入國債。 ??? 穆迪沒有說這些收益率可能會升至多高，但表示債臺高筑的經濟體其國債收益率可能大幅上升，具體取決于歐洲決策者們如何處理債務危機。 ??? 以當前收益率，意大利國債的市場需求能否持續并不確定。雖然歐元區內未來的政策舉措可能會降低投資者擔憂，穩定資金成本，但情況也可能截然相反。無論是何種情況，未來投資者都將對歐元區內主權債券區別對待，程度更甚于金融危機爆發前，導致歐元區內債務負擔高于平均水平的國家(如意大利)處于不利地位。 ??? 穆迪表示，雖然迄今為止意大利基本上還未淪落到與葡萄牙、愛爾蘭等財政狀況糟糕的國家相提并論的地步，但意大利的低生產率和僵化的勞動力市場將使其其很難走出目前的債務問題。 ??? 根據國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)估算，年底意大利的政府總負債率或至114%。經濟學家肯?羅格夫和卡門?萊因哈特的一份被廣泛引述的報告稱，負債率超過90%的國家其經濟增速往往更緩慢。 ??? 穆迪稱，經濟增速緩慢可能會使意大利的情況更為復雜，雖然意大利政府是少數實現基本預算盈余的發達國家之一——換言之，不包括利息支付，政府支出少于政府收入。 ??? 雖然利率低企(利率中期可能上升)，意大利在全球危機期間損失了近7個百分點的GDP，迄今為止只恢復了一小部分。未來一些年意大利的經濟增長前景將是決定政府收入以及財政整合目標能否實現的一個關鍵因素， ??? 希臘危機的熱度終于開始有所下降，一個更大的債務隱患又似乎即將開鍋。看來，今年夏天至少是一個炎熱的夏季。 |
????Moody's said Friday that it may downgrade Italy's debt, thanks to "fragile market sentiment" for deeply indebted European governments. It is the first downgrade warning for one of the stronger European economies since the Greek debt crisis flared up this spring. ????The rating agency said that as investors grow more risk averse, Italy -- currently rated Aa2, the second-highest rating -- may be unable to sell bonds without offering higher interest rates. ????Italian 10-year bonds recently yielded around 4.8%. That is below the 5.6% that Spanish bonds have been trading at lately but up a full point from the Italian rate last fall, when investors were flooding into government bonds amid the latest deflation scare. ????Moody's didn't say how high it thought those rates might go, but it said there is a risk that government bond yields in heavily indebted economies could rise substantially depending on how European policymakers handle the debt crisis. ????The continued stability of market demand for Italy's debt is uncertain at current yields. Although future policy actions within the euro area could reduce investors' concerns and stabilize funding costs, the opposite is also possible. In any event, going forward, investors appear likely to differentiate more among euro area sovereign borrowers than they did prior to the financial crisis, to the disadvantage of euro area countries with higher-than-average debt burdens, like Italy. ????While Italy has so far mostly managed to avoid being dragged into comparisons with weaker states such as Portugal and Ireland, its low productivity and rigid labor markets will make growing out of its debt problem difficult, Moody's said. ????Italy's gross government debt is on track to hit 114% by year-end, the International Monetary Fund estimates. A widely cited paper by economists Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart says countries with a ratio above 90% tend to grow more slowly. ????That slow growth could complicate things for Italy, Moody's said, despite the fact that the Italian government is one of the few in the developed world that is running a primary budget surplus – that is, taking in more money than it spends, excluding interest payments. ????Italy has so far only recovered a fraction of the nearly seven percentage points in GDP that it lost during the global crisis, despite low interest rates, which are likely to rise in the medium term. Growth prospects for the Italian economy in the coming years will be a crucial factor that will determine the government's revenues and the achievement of fiscal consolidation targets. ????So on a day when the Greek crisis finally cools off a few degrees, we learn that a much bigger debt pot may start soon start boiling. It figures to be a hot summer, to say the least. |
