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歐洲銀行系統病入膏肓

歐洲銀行系統病入膏肓

Colin Barr 2011-06-22
 一根羽毛就能壓垮某些歐洲銀行

特里謝的噩夢?

???

????歐洲大陸的金融機構與2008年倒臺前的雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)有一個驚人的相似之處:它們都過于依賴借款,特別是在市場震蕩中易受沖擊的廉價短期貸款。

????希臘違約目前看來已經不可避免,這一特征絕難讓人心安。上周末,歐洲的決策者們未能就下個月向希臘撥付120億歐元(170億美元)救助貸款達成一致,警告稱希臘政府必須率先表明其緊縮財政的誠意。顯然,騷亂還不足以促使他們下定決心。

????值得注意的是,大多數不顧后果的銀行——至少從這些指標來看——并非處于瘋狂的希臘或揮霍的葡萄牙,而是處于所謂“負責任的國家”和所謂的“歐洲核心國”的德國和法國。這些銀行面臨的希臘違約風險最大,涉及金額可能高達900億歐元(1,290億美元)左右。

????雖然近期的報紙商業版一直在談論德國的經濟復興,但節約和謹慎似乎并不是德國銀行業的特點。國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)的數據顯示,德國銀行業手頭每持有1歐元資本,就會放出32歐元貸款。如果你手頭還有記錄的話,就會知道當初雷曼兄弟倒臺時的杠桿比率也只有31-1。無論如何,這意味著一旦出現3%的損失,就可能出現由納稅人買單的結局。沒錯,再來一次。

????德國銀行業并不是雷曼唯一的難兄難弟:國際貨幣基金組織的數據顯示(見右圖),比利時銀行業的杠桿比率是30-1,而法國銀行業是26-1。總計,歐元區17國銀行業的平均杠桿比率為26-1——是美國的兩倍。相比之下,美國銀行業看來情況還不錯。

????歐洲銀行業的杠桿比率可能聽起來有些耳熟,因為它們和2007年金融市場開始暴跌前的美國大型投資銀行的杠桿比率相符。在泡沫時期大舉發展房地產金融業務的小型投資銀行——雷曼兄弟和貝爾斯登(Bear Stearns)的杠桿比率都超過了30-1,而高盛(Goldman Sachs)、 摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和美林(Merrill Lynch)等大型投行都在20多倍。

????另一個相似之處是歐洲銀行業都高度依賴短期市場資金,且資金來源都是類似美國貨幣基金這樣的全球最大的批發借款人。歷史顯示,市場恐慌能令這些資金瞬時消失,讓早已倍感壓力的歐洲央行(European Central Bank)更加為難。

????目前,仍不清楚歐洲銀行業是否已意識到今年可能重蹈2008年覆轍。盡管德國已不再要求私營部門借款人必須接受調低后的償付條款,但并沒有跡象顯示歐洲領導人短期內就會恢復理智,制定出終結危機的一攬子方案。

????這樣的走鋼絲式行為讓國際貨幣基金組織捏了一把汗,上周他們警告稱,“雖然銀行體系修復取得進展,但進度過于緩慢。”

????眼下,沒有理由相信違約的風險已經迫在眉睫,或者說銀行業一定無力應對希臘風暴。目前,流動性依然充足,金融系統也不像3、4年前那樣亢奮。不過,危機當前,銀行過度放貸的現象絕對無法讓人心安,不管這種現象多么司空見慣。

??? Financial institutions across the Continent share a terrifying trait with Lehman Brothers before its 2008 collapse: they rely too much on borrowed money, especially the cheap, short-term loans that are vulnerable to a market shock.

??? That's not exactly a handy characteristic when a Greek default seems almost inevitable. European policymakers this weekend failed to agree to terms on a 12 billion-euro ($17 billion) bailout loan due next month to Greece, warning that the Greek government must first show it is taking austerity seriously. Apparently mere riots aren't enough for these guys.

??? What's notable is that the most reckless banks, by these measures at least, reside not in gonzo Greece or profligate Portugal, but in the allegedly responsible states at the so-called core of Europe, Germany and France – the very banks that are most exposed to a Greek default, with some 90 billion euros ($129 billion) at stake.

??? Though it's hard to open the business section lately without finding a story about Germany's economic renaissance, thrift and prudence don't seem to characterize German banks. They hold 32 euros in loans for every euro of capital they have on hand, according to International Monetary Fund data. Lehman's leverage at the time of its collapse was 31-1, if you're keeping score at home. Either way it means a 3% loss leaves the taxpayers picking up the tab. Yes, that again.

??? The Germans aren't alone in Lehmanville: Belgian banks are using 30-1 leverage and French ones 26-1, the IMF numbers (see chart, right) show. All told, banks across the 17-country euro area average 26-1 leverage – double the ratio in the United States. Against all odds, European institutions have managed the nifty trick of making U.S. banks look good.

?? If the European leverage numbers sound familiar, it's because they are in line with the leverage ratios seen at the big U.S. investment banks before the financial markets started their nervous breakdown in 2007. Lehman and Bear Stearns, the smallish investment banks that gorged on real estate during the bubble, were both leveraged at more than 30-1 while Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Merrill Lynch were well into the 20s.

??? And in another similarity, the European banks are heavily reliant on short-term market funding, from sources such as the U.S. money funds that are among the biggest wholesale lenders on the planet. History shows that a market panic can make those funds suddenly unavailable, potentially putting an already stretched European Central Bank even more on the spot.

?? Yet it's not clear the Europeans have picked up just yet on how this year might come to rhyme with 2008. While Germany has backed away from its demand that private sector lenders be forced to accept reduced repayment terms, there is still no sign that Europe's leaders will soon come to their senses and hammer out a package that ends the siege once and for all.

??? All this tightrope walking is unnerving the staff at the IMF, which warned last week that "though there has been progress on banking system repair, the pace is too slow."

??? For now, there is no reason to believe a default is imminent or that the banks would be unable to handle the Greek storm. Liquidity is still ample and the financial system isn't as hyped up as it was three or four years ago. But the sight of overextended banks in the middle of a crisis is never reassuring, no matter how familiar it may be.

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