希臘銀行現擠兌風潮
沒有那么殘破不堪。
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????Bank of Greece的數據顯示，過去6個月中有5個月，希臘銀行業的居民存款顯現下降，合計減少了120億歐元(合176億美元)。GFC Economics駐倫敦的格雷厄姆?特納指出，兩年期存款4月份同比減少8%，儲蓄存款3月份同比減少16%。 ????希臘資金外逃只會加劇該國的金融危機，使其處于再次接受歐盟(European Union)和國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)救助的邊緣。 ????雖然官員們也許能將這一刻的到來再推遲一兩年，但銀行擠兌至少增加了令人討厭的不確定性。一旦逃離希臘的資金達到一定規模，將加速希臘債務不可避免地進行重組——歐洲央行(European Central Bank)目前忙于拯救歐洲各國資本金不足的銀行，因此竭力推遲這種局面的出現。 ????特納周二在致客戶的一份報告中寫道，“如果希臘存款人繼續用腳投票” ，重組“不會無限期后推”，“他們終將明白目前這種程度的緊縮政策和私有化從政治角度是否可持續”。 ????考慮到希臘糟糕的消息面，存款外逃并不意外。關于希臘退出歐元體系的討論似乎很不靠譜，決策者已經明確表態反對這一提議，但希臘重獲經濟競爭力的道路將異常艱難。 ????過去十年，以單位勞動力成本衡量的工資水平在德國僅上漲了7%，但在希臘大漲了50%左右——這意味著如果要實現希臘的成本結構與歐洲地區所謂的核心經濟體一致，希臘工人的工資將大幅下調。而要保持歐元區不分裂，這還只是漫長而痛苦的經濟重組進程的第一步。 ????希臘銀行業陷入困境之前，去年愛爾蘭也有類似的狀況。清理銀行體系的成本將大大高于政府此前承認的水平，隨著這一點日漸明朗，存款開始撤離愛爾蘭。 ????愛爾蘭人承諾實施嚴厲的緊縮方案以換取救助后，這一趨勢才得以終止；以典型的泡沫時代邏輯來看，這使得曾為銀行業的錯誤擴張提供了資金的投資者免受損失。然而，投資者的好運遲早會耗盡——但是德國正在推動延長希臘債務期限，而歐洲央行又在以近乎恐慌的聲音高呼“現在什么也看不到！繼續往前走！”，因此很難判斷這種好運什么時候到頭，也不知道到時會出現什么情況。 ????這就是現實——納稅人的錢大部分流向了銀行，以支持他們渡過難關；而年成好時，銀行多數情況下只會為內部人士謀福利。 ????目前這種做法在歐洲其他地區基本沒有遇到阻力。從數據看，也沒有跡象顯示對銀行業的憂慮正在向西班牙擴散——除了經濟規模更大的意大利之外，從各方面來看，西班牙都是處于高危名單上的下一個主要歐洲經濟體。 ????但是鑒于今年是銀行擠兌年，現在排除周邊地區的風險仍為時過早。 ????“我認為希臘可能是極端情況，”特納表示，“但我們知道西班牙和意大利投資者一直在倫敦頂級房地產市場上大筆買入。”從某種程度上說，這不過是從一個搖搖晃晃的紙牌房子轉到了另一個而已。 |
????Household deposits at Greek banks have dropped in five of the past six months, falling by a total of 12 billion euros ($17.6 billion), according to Bank of Greece data. Two-year deposits tumbled 8% from a year ago in April and savings deposits plunged at a 16% year-over-year clip in March, notes Graham Turner of GFC Economics in London. ????The flight of Greek funds overseas will only add to country's financial crisis, which has Greece on the verge of accepting another bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. ????But while officials may yet succeed in kicking this Hellenic can down the road for another year or two, at the very least the bank run adds unwelcome uncertainty. If enough money flees the country, it could hasten the inevitable restructuring of Greek debt – an outcome the European Central Bank is desperately trying to delay in the name of saving undercapitalized banks on the Continent. ????A restructuring "will not be deferred indefinitely if Greek depositors continue to vote with their feet," Turner writes in a note to clients Tuesday. "They ultimately have the best sense of whether this level of austerity and privatization is sustainable from a political perspective." ????The deposit flight is hardly surprising, considering the dire news coming out of Greece. Talk about its leaving the euro seems far fetched and has been resoundingly rejected by policymakers, but the country's road back to economic competitiveness is steep indeed. ????Wages, as measured by unit labor costs, rose just 7% over the past decade in Germany but soared 50% or so in Greece – meaning that workers there are looking at steep pay cuts indeed if they are to bring the country's cost structure into line with the region's so-called core. And that is only a first step in what promises to be a long and punishing economic makeover, assuming the euro zone manages to hold together. ????The woes of Greek banks follow a similar tale in Ireland over the past year. There, deposits left the country as it became clear that cleaning up the banking system would cost much more than the government had admitted. ????That episode ended with the Irish getting a bailout in return for a horrific austerity program that, in typical bubble-era logic, left the investors who funded the banks' wrongheaded expansion binge untouched. The investors' luck is going to run out sooner or later -- but it is hard to gauge just when, what with Germany pushing for an extension of Greek debt maturities and the ECB screaming in a near panic, Nothing to see here! Move along! ????Such is life when your taxpayer dollars are directed mostly to propping up the edifices of banks that served mostly to enrich insiders when times are good. ????For now, that effort continues mostly unimpeded elsewhere in Europe. There is no sign in the data that banking fears are spreading to Spain, which is by all accounts the next big European economy on the hit list, let alone much bigger Italy. ????But then, this being the year of the bank run, it is early yet to rule out problems anywhere on the periphery. ????"I think Greece is in a league of its own," says Turner, "but we know there has been significant buying of top end real estate in London by Spanish and Italian investors." From one house of cards to another, as it were. |
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