梅勒迪斯?惠特尼:美國州級財政狀況比預期更糟糕
????梅勒迪斯?惠特尼正在向共同基金、銀行和政客們發出新的警告:美國州級財政狀況遠比你想象的糟糕,至少比你一直以來愿意告訴投資者和(最終要承擔這一后果的)納稅人的情況要嚴重。在本周一致客戶的一份新報告中,惠特尼搜集了迄今為止看來最詳盡的州級預算和債務數據。 ????她的結論是未來需要通過加稅或大幅削減社會服務的方式來壓縮的赤字規模遠高于官方數據所示,而包含一切債務的總負債水平也遠遠超過官方估算。 ????惠特尼去年底在《60分鐘》(60 Minutes)節目中預測,未來五年將有數千億美元的市政債券出現違約。這一頗有爭議的預測遭到了來自各方的批評,其中尤以華爾街為甚;市政債券是華爾街的一大利潤來源。 ????如今,惠特尼在接受《財富》 (Fortune)采訪時表示,她當時只想做一個大致的預測。“我從未試圖準確預測違約規模,但我一直相信在整個周期中都將出現不同程度的市政債券違約。我當時是想指出,州級債務問題對于美國經濟是一大負面因素,其重要性僅次于美國房地產市場。” ????不管你是否同意她的觀點——她從評級機構等處得到的支持依然甚少——她給出的數據以及這些數據所呈現的風險確實令人生畏。 ????惠特尼的最新報告甚至比去年引發這場爭議的分析更為詳盡。報告涵蓋了全美25個最大的州,其中包括新增的亞利桑那州、內華達州、康涅狄格州和威斯康辛州等10個州。麻煩的源頭在于支出。2003年以來,州級政府已將每年的支出預算從1.5萬億美元提高至近2.2萬億美元,增加了7,000億美元,但稅收收入僅增加不到4,000億美元或3,000億美元,僅為1.4萬億美元。事實上,在整個經濟衰退期間,支出保持飆升,而2007年的銷售稅、所得稅和營業稅等稅收收入卻總體持平。 三大問題,無解決方案 ????但46個州都有責任平衡每年預算。那么當稅收收入存在36%的缺口時,它們將如何實現收支平衡呢?而且,在大幅加稅變得越來越困難之際,這一缺口在持續擴大。州級政府的額外收入有三項來源。首先,聯邦政府根據經濟刺激方案或《美國復蘇與再投資法案》(American Recovery and Reinvestment Act)大幅增加了對州政府的資助。2009年以來, 《美國復蘇與再投資法案》撥款和合同達到了4,800億美元,填補了總赤字的1/3還多。但最后一批經濟刺激方案援助資金將于本月到期。 ????即便聯邦資助力度空前加大,州級政府的額外收入仍然需要依賴另外兩大來源——但此類做法已越來越難復制。很多州都動用了政府應急資金。2010年州級政府動用此類現金達90億美元,其中康涅狄格州用盡了全部14億美元準備金,而賓夕法尼亞州則動用了7.55億美元應急資金。 ????第二,州級政府大幅增加了一般義務債券的發行,融資用途是企業所竭力避免的——即用長期債務償付營運費用。這些債券無一例外,都以州稅收收入為擔保。2000年,州級政府發行了670億美元的一般義務債券;去年發行額更是高達1,480億美元。雖然惠特尼承認這類證券不太可能出現違約,但未來仍是一個巨大的負擔。理由是,固定利率支出在州預算中的占比日益擴大,勢必擠壓其他支出占比。 ????如今,償債支出已占到內華達州預算的半數,占到密歇根州的40%。在亞利桑那州、加利福尼亞州、康涅狄格州、俄亥俄州和伊利諾伊州,這一比例現在也超過了20%。 ????第三,也是最大的問題是養老金支出,不僅增加了當前的現金支出,也人為地低估了當前州級政府的應支出水平。即便設定養老金支出最低額度,它們仍然擠壓了其他支出,因為養老金成本上升實在太快了。由此,未來的加稅和縮減支出幅度必將遠遠高于宣稱的數字。目前,各州的養老金都存在系統性缺口。如今,未來債務的覆蓋率是77%,大大低于2000年時的103%。如果每年足額支付養老金成本,州級政府將需要每年增加支出超過7,000億美元,占當前年支出額的40%多。 ????而且這些數據還不包括未來的醫保支出,該項支出列入一個鮮為人知的類別——其它離職后福利(Other Post Employment Benefits,簡稱OPEB)。大多數州級政府直接從收入中支付OPEB成本。大多數州都沒有累積真正能獲得收益的資金以支付未來的OPEB成本。新澤西州、紐約州、康涅狄格州和伊利諾伊州的OPEB債務都是即付式,完全沒有資金儲備。由于此類成本不可避免地膨脹,將給州級預算帶來更大壓力。 債務的巨大陰影 ????惠特尼還呈現了一幅極為黯淡的州級債務前景。各州有兩類債務完全由稅收收入支撐。一是表內債務,二是表外債務。第一類是用于支付工資和當前費用的一般義務債券。這些都是投資者完全可以看到的。但更大的麻煩是表外養老金和OPEB債務投下的巨大陰影。事實上,2008年以前,州級政府甚至都無需公布OPEB數據,由于州級政府一般都大大高估退休基金未來的回報率,養老金數據被持續低報。 ????正如惠特尼所示,這些表外數據難以置信地達到了所有表內總負債的三倍,總計2萬億美元。債務負擔正在迅速增長;過去一年,養老金缺口擴大了50%。 ????自然,有些州的財務狀況要比其他州健康得多。惠特尼說,印第安納州堪稱“模范公民”,而加利福尼亞州和新澤西州由于稅率太高,已經沒有多少空間,也沒有多少政治意愿來增加收入。由此出現了惠特尼所說的“州際套利”,即稅負低、經營環境好的州(如德克薩斯和北卡羅來納)從那些財政狀況不佳的州吸引了大批企業和工人。危險在于,這種趨勢仍在蔓延,從而可能形成惡性循環——由于稅基萎縮,弱州進一步削弱;而強州卻受益于審慎的財政政策。 ????州際套利的危害可能會擴大第二類市政債券(即收入債券)的違約規模。惠特尼依然認為一般義務債券的風險甚小,州級政府根本不會違約。財政災難論認為存在風險的是為補貼住房、收費公路、土地收購和養老院等具體項目提供資金的收入債券。這些債券由項目本身現金流支持,沒有州級政府擔保。因此一旦現金流不及利息支出所需,這些證券就面臨重組——而持有這些債券的投資者將付出高昂代價。而且,如今收入債券的規模大大超越一般義務債券,總計2.7萬億美元,而后者僅為1.4萬億美元。 ????惠特尼指出,福羅里達州已發行的市政債券90%是收入債券,很多與房地產相關。這些房地產相關證券是最脆弱的。只有時間能告訴我們,惠特尼在《60分鐘》節目中所說的“數千億美元”數據會不會成為現實。但她的報告顯示,在投資者和政客們擔心的所有問題中,州級財政的混亂狀況是最危險、也最容易被忽視的因素之一。 |
????Meredith Whitney is issuing a fresh warning to mutual funds, banks, and politicians: The state of state finances is far worse than what you think, or at least than what you've been willing to tell the investors and taxpayers who will eventually carry the burden. In a new report released today to her clients, Whitney summons what appears to be the most comprehensive set of data ever assembled on state budgets and debt. ????Her conclusion is that the future deficits that need to be closed, either by new taxes or draconian cuts in social services, are far bigger than the official numbers show, and that debt levels, when all liabilities are counted, vastly exceed the official estimates. ????Late last year on 60 Minutes, Whitney predicted hundreds of billions in defaults on municipal bonds in the next five years. That controversial call was widely condemned, especially on Wall Street, where the muni market is an enormous profit spinner. ????Now, Whitney tells Fortune she never meant to make more than a general forecast. "I never intended on framing the scale of defaults as a precise estimate, but I continue to believe that degree of municipal defaults will be borne out over the cycle. I meant to point out that the state debt problem is a massive headwind for the U.S. economy, second in importance only to housing." ????Whether you agree with it or not -- and she's still getting little support from rating agencies or anywhere else -- the numbers she's assembled, and the risks they pose, are daunting. ????Whitney's latest report is even more thorough than last year's analysis that started the uproar. It covers 25 of the largest states, adding ten new ones to the list, including Arizona, Nevada, Connecticut, and Wisconsin. The problem starts with spending. Since 2003, state governments have raised annual outlays from $1.5 trillion to almost $2.2 trillion, or $700 billion, yet tax receipts have risen only $400 billion or $300 billion less, to $1.4 trillion. In fact, spending kept surging all during the recession, while income from sales, income and corporate taxes went totally flat in 2007. Three big problems, no solution ????But 46 states are obligated to balance their budgets each year. So how are they bringing receipts in line with spending when taxes fall 36% short of revenue? And remember, this gap is growing despite big tax increases that are becoming more and more difficult. The states are getting that extra money from three sources. First, the federal government enormously increased aid to the states under the stimulus or American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Since 2009, the ARRA has delivered $480 billion in grants and contracts, padding over one-third of their combined deficits. But the last stimulus dollars expire this month. ????Even with a historic increase in federal assistance, the states have relied on two additional measures to plug the remainder of the shortfall -- measures that will be harder and harder to repeat. The states tapped "rainy day" funds or surpluses reserved for emergencies. Their governments used $9 billion of that cash in 2010, with Connecticut totally exhausting its $1.4 billion in reserves, and Pennsylvania tapping its emergency savings for $755 million. ????Second, the states have immensely increased their issuance of General Obligation bonds that fund what corporations strive to avoid -- paying operating expenses with long-term debt. Those securities are backed exclusively by state tax revenue. In 2000, the states issued $67 billion in GO securities; last year, they raised $148 billion from those bonds. While Whitney acknowledges that this class of securities is unlikely to see defaults, they still place a huge burden on the future. The reason: Fixed interest expenses are absorbing a bigger and bigger share of state budgets, leaving a shrinking portion for everything else. ????Today, debt service absorbs half of Nevada's budget, and 40% of Michigan's. In Arizona, California, Connecticut, Ohio and Illinois, the share now exceeds 20%. ????The third and biggest problem, pension costs, both increases current cash expenses and artificially understates what the states should be spending today. Even by putting the minimum into their pension funds, they're still crowding out spending for everything else because the costs are rising so fast. Hence, it ensures that future tax increases and spending cuts will be far greater than advertised. The states are systematically underfunding their pensions. Today, they cover 77% of their future liabilities versus 103% in 2000. If they fully paid their annual pension costs, the states would need to increase spending by over $700 billion a year, or over 40% of their current outlays. ????And those figures don't include future spending on health care costs, falling into a little-known category called OPEB or Other Post Employment Benefits. Most states simply pay these OPEB costs directly from revenues. No actual income-generating funds, accumulated for the future, back them in most states. New Jersey, New York, Connecticut and Illinois are all pay-as-you go states with totally unfunded OPEB liabilities. As those costs inevitably swell, they will apply even more pressure to state budgets. Giant shadow of debt ????Whitney also presents a startlingly bleak picture of state debt. States have two types of liabilities that are fully backed by tax revenues. One is on-balance sheet, and the other is excluded from the states' books. The first type is the General Obligation bonds that fund salaries and current expenses. Those are fully visible to investors. But the bigger problem is the giant shadow cast by the pension and OPEB liabilities that are absent from balance sheets. In fact, states weren't even required to report the OPEB number at all until 2008, and the pension figure is consistently understated because states generally far overestimate future returns on their retirement funds. ????As Whitney shows, these off-balance sheet numbers are an incredible three times the size of all on-balance sheet debt, totaling $2 trillion. The load is rising quickly; the unfunded pension burden has jumped 50% in the past year. ????Naturally, some states are far healthier than others. Indiana, says Whitney, is a "model citizen," while California and New Jersey already face such high tax rates that they have little room, or political will, to raise more revenue. The danger is a continuation of what's already happening, what Whitney calls "state arbitrage," in which the low-tax, business friendly venues such as Texas and North Carolina keep drawing companies and workers from the fiscally-challenged states. That could cause a vicious cycle where the weak get even weaker as their tax bases erode, and the strong reap the rewards from fiscal prudence. ????The damage from state arbitrage could increase the scale of defaults in the second type of municipal securities: Revenue Bonds. Once again, Whitney sees little threat to General Obligation bonds because states simply won't default. What the fiscal calamity calls in doubt is Revenue Bonds that back specific projects such as subsidized housing, toll roads, land acquisitions, and nursing homes. Those bonds are supported by the cash flows from the projects themselves, and they aren't guaranteed by the state governments. So if the cash flows fall short of the interest payments, they need to be restructured -- at a big cost to the investors who own them. And the revenue bonds now dwarf general bonds in total volume, totaling $2.7 trillion, versus $1.4 billion for the GOs. ????Whitney points out that Florida has issued 90% of its municipal offerings in revenue bonds, many tied to real estate. Those real estate-related securities are the most vulnerable. Only time will tell if the "hundreds of billions" figure Whitney ventured on 60 Minutes will materialize. But her report shows that of all the problems investor and politicians are worried about, the mess in state finances is one of the most dangerous, and certainly the most overlooked. |