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中國百萬富翁數持續增長 不受經濟減速影響

中國百萬富翁數持續增長 不受經濟減速影響

Sheridan Prasso 2011-06-08
盡管有不少跡象顯示中國經濟增速正在放緩,但家庭財富仍在高速增長,外資銀行爭先恐后,希望抓住這一商機。

????中國計劃在2015年底前平均每天發起一宗首次公開募股(IPO),這一過程正在創造驚人的財富,全球頂級銀行都竭力想抓住這個商機。波士頓咨詢公司(Boston Consulting Group)的一份最新報告顯示,即便中國經濟的高速增長目前呈現出一定的放緩跡象,但在可預見的未來,中國家庭財富仍將以每年14%的速度增長。

????美國和歐洲銀行正在跑步進入該市場——至少以中國監管部門許可的速度。過去幾個月,這些銀行排隊要與中國證券公司建立提供投資銀行產品的合資公司,并已在香港增設了大量私人理財經理,提供投資和理財建議服務。它們還在計劃提供大量人民幣計價債券、衍生工具等產品——都是去年首度出現的。去年,香港銀行賬戶中的人民幣存款增長了三倍。

????中國官方公布的五年規劃支持國有企業私有化,鼓勵2015年底前每年完成300宗IPO,這意味著數十億美元的資金急需理財服務,同時也意味著大量的投資機會。“會有越來越多的中國企業上市,同時出現大量財富神話,”波士頓咨詢公司亞太金融機構專項負責人兼本報告作者之一鄧俊豪表示,“正因為如此,很多私人銀行都在覬覦這個不斷增長的市場。”

????然而這并非易事。目前人民幣還無法實現完全自由兌換,中國監管部門對外資銀行仍然實行市場準入制度,限制外資銀行設立新的分支機構并為中國客戶提供全套服務。雖然中國早在2001年加入世界貿易組織(World Trade Organization)時就已列明了逐步開放銀行業的條款,但外資銀行發現過去十年監管部門的審批過程仍然緩慢而繁瑣。中資銀行業正在日益成熟壯大,而外資銀行卻被遠遠拋在了后面。

????盡管過程可能沉悶乏味,但面對如此巨大的商機,外資銀行業所無法視而不見。上周四,花旗集團(Citigroup)宣布將與總部位于上海的東方證券建立一家合資企業,首次獲得在中國市場承銷股票和債券的資格;東方證券將持有合資企業67%的股份。然而,花旗進入這個市場的時間已經落后于同行。高盛(Goldman Sachs)、德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)、瑞銀(UBS)、蘇格蘭皇家銀行(Royal Bank of Scotland)等其他7家銀行早已推出了中國證券合資公司。摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)也于今年1月獲得了中國投資銀行業務資格。

????在零售層面,花旗銀行(Citibank)一直的擴張速度已經達到了中國監管部門所允許的上限。該行目前在中國13個省市設有36家分支機構,并公開宣布希望今年年底前網點能增至50家,三年內增至100家。

????另外,匯豐(HSBC)也非常看好亞洲的銀行業商機。去年該行將首席執行官邁克爾?蓋根及高管人員的常駐地從倫敦總部遷到了香港,并將亞洲稱為“最具戰略性重要意義的地區”。

????目前,亞洲私人銀行只擁有亞洲財富總額38.5萬億美元中的1.5萬億美元——占比不到4%。“私人銀行的滲透率仍然很低,因此商機巨大。”鄧俊豪表示,“許多在岸市場[如中國和印度]仍然存在高度管制,隨著監管環境開始變得開放,私人銀行業有望擴大在這些國內市場上的銷售。”

????目前而言,顯然亞洲家庭的財富積累速度快于全球其他地區——盡管美國仍穩居榜首。下面的數據源于波士頓咨詢公司的最新報告:

????-- 中國及周邊國家(日本除外)去年的財富增速為17%,而美國家庭的財富增速剛剛超過10%。

????-- 但美國的增速仍高于中東和拉美平均8%的增速;歐洲家庭的財富增速更是相形失色,僅為4.8%。

????-- 美國的百萬美元資產家庭數量仍居全球首位(520萬戶) – 是中國(110萬戶)的6倍。

????--此外,美國家庭財富超過1億美元的超級富豪家庭數量仍是全球最多的(合計達2,692戶)。

????-- 但中國的超級富豪家庭增速最快——高達30% (總數為393戶)。

????-- 未來增長將主要來自新興市場——預計2015年底前中國每年增長14%,印度每年18%。

????不太走運的一個地方是日本。即便沒有巨災,其財富也在縮水——去年下降了0.2%。雖然2008年日本擁有亞洲50%以上的財富,但隨著中國和印度的家庭財富持續增長,預計到2015年這一數字將降至33%。中國和印度的發展使全球增長引擎得以維持,全球頂級銀行必然聞風而至,加緊對這一地區的爭奪。

????China's plan to launch nearly an IPO a day through 2015 is creating a phenomenal amount of wealth, and the world's top banks are scrambling to capture it. And even though the rocketing economic growth in China shows some signs of slowing, Chinese household wealth will still grow 14% a year for the foreseeable future, according to a new report from the Boston Consulting Group.

????U.S. and European banks are racing into the region -- or at least as fast as Chinese regulators will let them. In the past few months, banks teamed up in joint ventures with Chinese securities operations to offer investment banking and they've added a slew of private wealth-managers in Hong Kong to offer investment and financial planning advice. They're also working to produce a spate of Chinese yuan-denominated products such as bonds and derivatives -- all offered for the first time last year. Deposits in the Chinese currency in Hong Kong bank accounts also quadrupled last year.

????China's official Five-Year Plan to support the privatization of state-owned enterprises and encourage 300 public share offerings a year through 2015 will translate into billions of dollars just waiting for wealth managers and investment opportunities. "You will see many more Chinese companies come to market, and many wealth creation events," says Tjun Tang, the head of the Boston Consulting Group's Asia-Pacific financial institutions practice and one of the authors of the report. "That's why many private banks are gearing up to serve this growing market."

????It's not always easy. China doesn't allow its currency, the yuan, to be fully convertible, and it has restricted market access to foreign banks that want to open new branches and offer their full range of services to Chinese customers. While terms for China's gradual opening up of the banking sector were laid out when the country joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, foreign banks have found the past decade of regulatory approval to be a slow, step-by-step process that has kept them far behind the curve as domestic Chinese banks mature and continue to grow.

????Tedious as it may be, the opportunity is too huge for the banks to ignore. On Thursday, Citigroup (C) announced that it would form a joint venture with Shanghai-based Orient Securities Co., allowing it to underwrite stocks and bonds in the China market for the first time. Orient Securities would own 67% of the venture. But Citi is a relative latecomer to this game. Seven other banks including Goldman Sachs (GS), Deutsche Bank (DB), UBS (UBS), and Royal Bank of Scotland have already launched Chinese securities ventures. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) received Chinese regulatory approval for investment banking in January.

????On the retail level, Citibank is expanding as fast as Chinese regulators will let it. It has just 36 branches in 13 cities in China, although it has said publicly that it wants to have 50 by the end of the year and 100 within three years.

????And HSBC considers Asia's banking potential so critical that last year it relocated its CEO Michael Geoghegan and his top executives from London headquarters to Hong Kong, calling Asia its "strategically most important region."

????For now, private banks in Asia have just $1.5 trillion of the $38.5 trillion of the total wealth in Asia—or less than 4%. "The penetration of private banking is low, so the opportunity is still very big," says Tang. "A lot of onshore markets [like China and India] are still highly regulated, so as the regulatory environment begins to open, private banks will be allowed to sell more in those domestic markets."

????For a while now, it's been clear that Asia is getting richer faster than the rest of the world—though the U.S. still remains on top. According to the data from the BCG report:

????-- Wealth in China and its surrounding countries (except Japan) grew at a rate of 17% last year; household wealth of Americans grew at just over 10%.

????-- Yet U.S. growth is still higher than the 8% average in the Middle East and Latin America; Europe's wealth growth was an anemic 4.8%.

????-- The United States still has the most millionaires of anywhere in the world (5.2 million households) – five times more than China has (with 1.1 million).

????-- And the U.S. still has the highest number of "super-wealthy" households having over $100 million (a total of 2,692).

????-- But China experienced the highest growth of "super-wealthy" households – the number is up 30% (to a total of 393).

????-- Emerging markets will experience most of the growth going forward – 14% in China, and 18% per year in India, through 2015.

????One of the unfortunate stories, however, is Japan. Even without its huge natural disaster, its wealth has been declining -- it was down by 0.2% last year. While the Japanese had more than 50% of Asia's wealth in 2008, that number is expected to decline to 33% by 2015 as China and India continue to grow wealthier, keeping global growth engines surging ahead, and the world's top banks scrambling to keep up.

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