穆迪再次下調(diào)希臘評級
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????穆迪(Moody's)再次下調(diào)希臘評級，違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為50-50，理由是希臘財(cái)政拮據(jù)以及歐洲政局令人憂慮。 ????這家評級機(jī)構(gòu)將希臘評級降至Caa1，是其評級體系中倒數(shù)第三位評級；同時(shí)維持對其前景的負(fù)面判斷，意味著穆迪可能不久會再次下調(diào)其評級。穆迪給出的理由是隨著借款增加、希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)萎縮，希臘的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)日益沉重，未來希臘無法維持債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)穩(wěn)定的概率上升。另外，穆迪還提到了希臘“高度不確定的增長前景”。 ????這項(xiàng)決定再次確認(rèn)了“希臘政府將無力償還債務(wù)”的事實(shí)，除非希臘撕毀3,000多億歐元債務(wù)的部分欠條。若果真如此，這意味著投資者將被迫分擔(dān)希臘納稅人承擔(dān)的部分痛楚。 ????市場已接受了這種觀點(diǎn)，近日來2年期希臘債券的收益率高達(dá)25%。去年實(shí)施的救助方案將迫使希臘于明年重返市場、募集更多資金，現(xiàn)在看來這樣做的成本可能高不可攀。 ????但是無論如何，必須從某個(gè)地方籌集到資金。雖然希臘已采取了壓縮政府支出的緊縮財(cái)政政策，但希臘預(yù)算赤字仍在攀升——這也是為何穆迪等評級公司一段時(shí)間來一直警告稱希臘急需進(jìn)行債務(wù)重組。3月份穆迪已調(diào)低希臘評級，上月又宣布可能很快會再次下調(diào)。 ????不過，雖然來自歐洲的鼓點(diǎn)聲有些不妙，但有理由相信舞蹈還將持續(xù)一陣子。“穆迪認(rèn)為希臘債務(wù)重組并非不可避免，”該評級機(jī)構(gòu)稱，“因?yàn)檫`約事件很可能在短期內(nèi)就會引發(fā)劇烈動蕩，對歐洲資本市場的全面影響將很難預(yù)測，而控制起來則是難上加難。 |
????Moody's downgraded Greece again, putting 50-50 odds on a default thanks to the country's strapped finances and tortured European politics. ????The rating agency cut Greece's rating to Caa1, its third-lowest rating, and kept its outlook negative, meaning another downgrade could come soon. Moody's cited rising chances that the country won't stabilize its debt burden, which has been getting heavier as borrowings rise and the economy shrinks. It also blamed Greece's "highly uncertain growth prospects." ????The decision is the latest recognition of the fact that the Greek government won't be able to pay its bills unless it rips up some of the 300 billion-plus euros of IOUs it has issued. That would mean forcing investors to share some of the pain being borne by Greek taxpayers, on the occasions they can be located. ????The market has caught onto this view, with two-year Greek bonds trading at yields as high as 25% in recent days. The bailout package adopted last year would force the Greeks to come back to market for more funds over the next year, which now looks impossibly costly. ????But the money is going to have to come from somewhere. The Greek budget deficit has been growing even as the country adopts austerity measures aimed at curbing government spending – which is why Moody's and others have been warning for some time about the need for a debt restructuring. Moody's downgraded Greece in March and said last month another might be on the way. ????Yet as ominous as the drumbeat out of Europe is, there is some reason to believe the dancing will go on for a bit. "Moody's does not believe that a restructuring of Greece's debt is inevitable," the rating agency says. "This is because a default in the short term would very likely be highly destabilizing, and the full impact on Europe's capital markets would be hard to predict and harder still to control." |
