大宗商品價格的漲勢
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????卡爾尼本周一的演講主要強調了加拿大在這個多變的世界中的角色，不過卡爾尼還單獨談到了石油、銅和谷物等產品的價格問題。 ????新興經濟體城市中產階級的崛起，對很多大宗商品都產生了重大的影響。不過在衣食住行等各方面，主要新興市場國家的消費水平仍然只是發達國家的零頭。 ????要想追趕上發達國家的消費水平，這些新興國家還有很長的路要走。在一段時間內，這些國家對商品的需求預計還將保持強勁。鑒于上世紀60年代的日本和80年代的韓國的經驗，可以說在未來的幾年里，亞洲新興國家的能源和金屬消耗量會水漲船高。 ????當然，最近大宗商品價格有所下降。如果在2011年剩下的時間里，經濟復蘇持續疲軟，那么商品價格也許還會繼續下降。此外隨著時間的推移，供給將做出反應，使許多產品的價格出現下跌。不過下跌的速度未必會有我們所希望的那么快。（而石油的價格可能根本不會出現下跌，除非到時石油的價格本身已經比現在高出許多）。 ????不過如果你聽了卡爾尼的話，再看看過去五年的商品價格指數（見右圖），你就會明白，我們不應該過度沉迷于上個月的利好消息。 ????譯者：樸成奎 |
????Carney's speech Monday focused on Canada's role in a changing world, but it included this aside about the price of stuff like oil, copper and grains: ????The expanding urban middle class in emerging economies is having a major impact on a wide range of commodities. Whether it is travel, housing or protein, consumption levels in major emerging markets are currently fractions of those in advanced economies. ????With convergence still a long way off, the demand for commodities can be expected to remain robust for some time. Based on the experiences of Japan in the 1960s and Korea in the 1980s, emerging Asia's energy and metals intensities should gain momentum in coming years. ????Commodity prices have been falling lately, of course, and they may continue to do so as the economic recovery sputters through the balance of 2011. And over time there will be a supply response that will ease prices for many goods, if not necessarily as quickly as we might like (and perhaps not at all in the case of oil, except at much higher prices). ????But reading Carney's remarks – and looking at a commodity index chart covering the past five years (see right) – says we shouldn't get too used to the good news of the past month. |
