????國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)總裁、法國(guó)人多米尼克?斯特勞斯-卡恩因涉嫌企圖強(qiáng)奸一位酒店女服務(wù)員，周一在紐約被傳喚并羈押。預(yù)計(jì)他不久會(huì)辭職。畢竟，無法獲得保釋，就無法參與國(guó)際貨幣基金組織當(dāng)前的一些重要事務(wù)，包括救助希臘、愛爾蘭和葡萄牙等債臺(tái)高筑的國(guó)家。

????即便如此，如果你預(yù)計(jì)斯特勞斯-卡恩的下臺(tái)會(huì)沖擊歐洲的救助和遮掩機(jī)制，短時(shí)間內(nèi)你可能要失望了。

????救助決定“最終是一個(gè)歐洲的政治問題”，彼得森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）的雅各布?芬克?科克加德表示，“這些國(guó)家和國(guó)際貨幣基金組織之間的協(xié)作關(guān)系如此穩(wěn)固，目前很難想象這會(huì)掀起很大波瀾。”

????上周六事件的更深層次影響可能是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)權(quán)將從債臺(tái)高筑的西方轉(zhuǎn)向新興的東方——這股加速的趨勢(shì)幾乎肯定會(huì)呈現(xiàn)在接過斯特勞斯-卡恩爛攤子的繼任者身上。

????國(guó)際貨幣基金組織總裁傳統(tǒng)上都來自歐洲，就像世界銀行(World Bank)行長(zhǎng)都來自美國(guó)一樣。但隨著發(fā)展中國(guó)家在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中的比重越來越不容忽視，它們對(duì)于被排除在這些職務(wù)之外日益不滿——上周末的事件將使得遵循傳統(tǒng)更加困難。

????“只有真正出色的歐洲候選人才具有足以接替斯特勞斯-卡恩的公信度，”科克加德說，“世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的變化意味著國(guó)際貨幣基金組織需要真正做到全球化，這影響到誰來接替。”

????他認(rèn)為，唯一可行的歐洲候選人是法國(guó)財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)克里斯汀?拉嘉德。她有一些“獨(dú)特的優(yōu)勢(shì)，”包括可能成為國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的首任女總裁。

????但以中國(guó)、印度和巴西為首的發(fā)展中國(guó)家現(xiàn)在有了一個(gè)從西方手中奪取領(lǐng)導(dǎo)權(quán)的機(jī)會(huì)，如果它們能就推舉一位合適的候選人達(dá)成一致。

????科克加德表示，發(fā)展中世界的首選國(guó)際貨幣基金組織總裁候選人包括新加坡財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)尚達(dá)曼，供職于布魯金斯學(xué)會(huì)（Brookings Institution） 的土耳其人凱默?德維斯以及主管墨西哥銀行（Bank of Mexico）的奧古斯汀?卡斯騰斯。

????“當(dāng)然，你會(huì)提問，中國(guó)支持的候選人對(duì)印度而言是否可以接受，反之亦然，”科克加德表示，“他們的任務(wù)是找到一個(gè)能獲得各方支持的候選人。”

????國(guó)際貨幣基金組織總裁一職并非是近期唯一一個(gè)將出現(xiàn)空缺的職位。目前由美國(guó)人約翰?利普斯基占據(jù)的該組織二把手位置也將隨著利普斯基的離去，于8月份出現(xiàn)空缺。而目前由美國(guó)人羅伯特?佐利克占據(jù)的世界銀行行長(zhǎng)職務(wù)不久也將出現(xiàn)空缺。

????當(dāng)然，國(guó)際金融組織的國(guó)際化進(jìn)程是不可避免的。如果西方人期待巴西和中國(guó)能彌補(bǔ)其經(jīng)濟(jì)疲弱之不足，就必須為此放棄一些東西。

????現(xiàn)在的問題是相比始于去年秋季的大宗商品價(jià)格飆升，新興國(guó)家是否能更好地把握這次機(jī)會(huì)。在大宗商品價(jià)格飆升過程中，巴西，特別是中國(guó)的影響巨大——但二者一概將此歸咎于本?伯南克。

????這聽上去更像是國(guó)會(huì)的胡言亂語，而不是準(zhǔn)備執(zhí)掌世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者的行為。如果一切順利的話，這次新興國(guó)家會(huì)做得好一些。

????The IMF's chief, Dominique Strauss-Kahn of France, was arraigned and jailed Monday in New York on charges he tried to rape a hotel maid. He is expected to resign soon. Guys who can't get bail aren't much use when it comes to bailing out others, after all, and propping up debt-soaked states like Greece, Ireland and Portugal is what the IMF does nowadays.

????That said, if you're waiting for Strauss-Kahn's fall to throw a wrench into Europe's extend-and-pretend machine, you're probably going to be waiting a long time.

????Bailout decisions "are ultimately a European political question," says Jacob Funk Kirkegaard of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "The working relationship between those countries and the IMF is so entrenched at this point that it's hard to imagine this causing much more than a hiccup."

????The bigger impact of Saturday's alleged incident lies in the shift of economic leadership from the debt-soaked West to the emerging East – an accelerating trend that is almost certain to manifest itself in who gets chosen to pick up the pieces left by Strauss-Kahn.

????The head of the IMF traditionally comes from Europe, just as the head of the World Bank has hailed from the United States. But the developing countries whose expansion now accounts for the lion's share of economic growth have been chafed by their exclusion from those roles -- and this weekend's events are going to make upholding those traditions, such as they are, that much more difficult.

????"Only a truly exceptional European candidate can have the credibility to replace Strauss-Kahn," says Kirkegaard. "The changes in the world economy mean the IMF needs to be truly global, and that has implications for who takes over next."

????He views the sole plausible European candidate as Christine Lagarde, the French finance minister. She has "unique qualifications," including potentially being the first woman in an office that up till now has been held only by men.

????But developing countries led by China, India and Brazil now have an opportunity, if they can settle on a suitable nominee, to wrest leadership from the West.

????Kirkegaard says the top IMF candidates from the developing world include Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who is Singapore's finance minister, Kemal Dervis, a Turk who is at the Brookings Institution, and Augustin Carstens, who runs the Bank of Mexico.

????"Of course, you have the question if a candidate backed by China would ever be acceptable toIndia, and vice versa," says Kirkegaard. "The onus is on them to find someone they can unite behind."

????The IMF chief's job isn't the only one that's going to be open. The No. 2 post at the fund, currently held by American John Lipsky, will be up for grabs in August, after Lipsky departs, and the World Bank chairmanship held now by American Robert Zoellick will soon open up as well.

????The internationalization of international finance institutions is inevitable, of course. If Westerners are expecting Brazil and China to pick up the slack for our weak economies, we will have to give up something in return.

????Now the question is whether the emerging countries handle this opportunity better than they dealt with the commodity price surge that started last fall. Brazil and especially China had a huge role in that affair – yet they unsportingly chose to point the finger at Ben Bernanke.

????That sounds more like the nonsense you hear out of Congress than the actions of leaders ready to take a whirl at the helm of the global economy. With any luck they will do better this time.