????下周五將是OpenTable上市兩周年。上市兩年來的大部分時(shí)間里，OpenTable是逐步復(fù)蘇的IPO市場中一顆耀眼的明星。而且OpenTable的大部分承諾都得到了兌現(xiàn)——堪稱新型網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司典范，激活了資本市場的沉悶一角。

????OpenTable 2009年IPO標(biāo)志著經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退之后互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司IPO的卷土重來。在OpenTable上市前兩個(gè)季度，沒有一家獲風(fēng)投支持的初創(chuàng)企業(yè)進(jìn)行IPO。OpenTable的IPO不僅展現(xiàn)了對(duì)于一家成長的盈利互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司，市場是安全的，而且該股上市后的大飆也有暖場效應(yīng)，有助于LinkedIn、Zillow等其他公司跟進(jìn)。

????OpenTable是一宗包裝漂亮的IPO，市場需要藉此讓機(jī)構(gòu)投資者相信，web2.0不僅是流行詞引發(fā)的短暫的市場狂熱。上個(gè)月，該股股價(jià)曾高至118.66美元，幾乎是發(fā)行價(jià)20美元的近6倍。

????但上個(gè)月，圍繞OpenTable的市場人氣發(fā)生了變化，而且，這種轉(zhuǎn)變可能反映了投資者對(duì)Facebook 等網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司上市前高漲的估值日益不安。OpenTable的股價(jià)已較高點(diǎn)回落逾1/5，股票賣空額在上升，這說明看跌者正在賭股價(jià)進(jìn)一步下跌。

????不過，這種下跌并不意外。1個(gè)月前，OpenTable股價(jià)的2011年動(dòng)態(tài)市盈率達(dá)到了101倍。而回調(diào)將該股股價(jià)推低至2月初首次觸及的水平——也就是說，兩年期回報(bào)率仍令人艷羨。另一方面，該股股價(jià)2011年動(dòng)態(tài)市盈率仍高達(dá)82倍。與之形成對(duì)比的是，谷歌(Google)的市盈率僅16倍。

????而且，賣空額(即預(yù)期股價(jià)下跌的賣空者持有的股份數(shù))4月份升至570萬股，兩個(gè)月前為400萬股。這相當(dāng)于OpenTable自由流通股數(shù)量的27%，即每4股自由流通股就有超過1股由看跌者持有。

????OpenTable過去也曾面臨高賣空額，但看漲者取得了勝利。本月早些時(shí)候，當(dāng)OpenTable公布季度業(yè)績和首席執(zhí)行官杰夫?喬丹將卸任的消息時(shí)，這種狀況發(fā)生了變化。

????加入OpenTable前曾供職eBay多年的喬丹將出任公司執(zhí)行董事長，管理大權(quán)交由2005年以來擔(dān)任公司首席財(cái)務(wù)官的馬修?羅伯茨。人事變動(dòng)出現(xiàn)于季度業(yè)績強(qiáng)勁之時(shí)， OpenTable營收增長60%，每股收益28美分也比預(yù)期高出了5美分。

????即便喬丹在硅谷聲名不錯(cuò)，首席執(zhí)行官更替消息也不應(yīng)令股價(jià)大跌。財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告顯示，1季度凈利潤率12%，與上年同期持平，但低于前一季的16%。一些分析師表示19%的營運(yùn)利潤率低于他們的預(yù)期。

????利潤增長曾推動(dòng)OpenTable的股價(jià)大漲。該公司的商業(yè)計(jì)劃稱不上有很大的創(chuàng)新。事實(shí)上，其成功顯示了某些商業(yè)領(lǐng)域——如獨(dú)立餐廳——的電子商務(wù)發(fā)展仍滯后。開拓這些電子商務(wù)領(lǐng)域的公司隨著規(guī)模擴(kuò)大，營收增速快于營運(yùn)成本上升。但OpenTable的利潤率至多也只是持平。在投資者希望看到利潤率增長之時(shí)，一個(gè)優(yōu)秀的首席執(zhí)行官選擇離開讓OpenTable的股價(jià)上漲動(dòng)力大減。一旦這種情況發(fā)生，悲觀的賣空者介入，樂觀者可能會(huì)輸。

????要扭轉(zhuǎn)股價(jià)下跌之勢，OpenTable需要的是一個(gè)特別強(qiáng)勁的季度業(yè)績。但股價(jià)回調(diào)提醒人們，不管OpenTable管理得有多好，都不能使其三位數(shù)的市盈率變得合理。如果悲觀者和賣空者獲勝，這家運(yùn)營良好的高估值公司股價(jià)可能大跌，即便目前公司樣樣都好。

????而且，這可能進(jìn)而打擊投資者對(duì)其他希望參與火爆IPO市場的高估值網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司的熱情。

????Next Friday will mark OpenTable's second anniversary in the public markets. For most of its publicly traded two years, OpenTable (OPEN) has been an bright star in an IPO market struggling its way back to relevance. And for the most part, OpenTable has delivered on its promise -- a hearty example of the new breed of web companies who could enliven a lethargic corner of the capital markets.

????OpenTable's 2009 IPO marked the return of the Internet IPO in the wake of the recession. During the two quarters before OpenTable went public, no venture-backed startups staged an IPO. OpenTable showed that not only were the markets safe for a growing, profitable Internet company, but its surging stock price since then helped warm the waters for others like LinkedIn and Zillow to jump in.

????OpenTable was a gift-wrapped IPO, just what the market needed to seduce institutional investors into the notion that web2.0 isn't just a buzzword-turned-market-mania that given would time burn itself out. Last month, the stock traded as high as $118.66 a share, nearly six times its $20 offering price.

????But in the last month, the sentiment has changed around OpenTable. And that shift may reflect a growing sense of unease in the inflated valuations of web companies like Facebook as they head for the public markets. OpenTable's stock has lost more than a fifth of its peak value, and short interest on the stock is rising, suggesting bearish investors are betting on further declines to come.

????On the one hand, the decline isn't surprising. OpenTable's stock was trading at 101 times its estimated 2011 earnings a month ago. And the correction brought the stock back down to levels it first reached in early February -- that is, to returns still enviable for a two-year period. On the other hand, the stock is still trading at 82 times its 2011 earnings. Google (GOOG), by contrast, is trading at 16 times earnings.

????And short interest, shares held by short sellers in expectation of a decline, rose to 5.7 million shares at the end of April from 4 million shares two months earlier. That's equal to 27% of OpenTable's stock float, which means that more than 1 in 4 OpenTable shares available for trading is held by someone expecting the stock to decline.

????OpenTable has faced a high short interest before, but the enthusiasm of its bullish investors always prevailed. That changed earlier this month, when OpenTable announced its quarterly earnings as well as the news that its CEO Jeff Jordan would step down.

????Jordan, an eBay (EBAY) veteran before joining OpenTable, will become its executive chairman, handing the reins to Matthew Roberts, its CFO since 2005. The news came in the midst of what on the surface seemed a strong financial quarter, with OpenTable's revenue rising 60% and the 28-cents-a-share earnings coming in five cents stronger than estimates.

????As good as Jordan's name is in Silicon Valley, news of the change in CEOs shouldn't have caused the stock to plunge. The financial report also showed its net profit margin at 12% in the first quarter, flat with the year-ago figure but down from 16% in the previous quarter. Some analysts thought the 19% operating margins was lower than they expected.

????Profit growth had powered OpenTable's stock rally. The company's business plan wasn't radically innovative. Rather, its success showed that there are corners of the business world -- like independent restaurants -- that haven't yet been adequately been brought online. And that companies that mine these untapped areas of e-commerce can, as they scale up, grow revenue faster than operating costs.But OpenTable's profits are remaining flat at best. Seeing a valued CEO depart at the moment when investors are hoping to see margins grow took some wind out of OpenTable's power rally. Once that happened, the bearish short sellers stepped in, and the bulls couldn't overpower them this time.

????All OpenTable needs is an exceptionally strong quarter to reverse the stock decline. But the correction is a reminder that OpenTable, no matter how well it's managed, can't justify a triple-digit P/E ratio. If bears and short sellers win out, the company may go from a well run business that is overvalued to a company that is seeing its stock plummeting even though it's doing everything right.

????And that in turn could dampen the market's enthusiasm for the other highly-valued web stocks that want a piece of the hot IPO market.