????你附近的銀行有人民幣出售嗎？可能現在還沒有，但人民幣看來的確是正在推動海外交易放開。

????4月末備受關注的一個事件是新加坡希望能成為中國內地和香港以外的首個人民幣離岸交易中心。之前在去年夏天，中國決定允許人民幣在香港買賣，而1月份的一項類似舉動則為一家中資銀行在紐約交易人民幣鋪平了道路。

????縱觀這三個消息，反映的是經濟政治現實的復雜變遷。最顯而易見的是全球人民幣需求正在上升。隨著中國經濟持續穩步增長，投資者已注意到人民幣長期將不可避免地出現升值，因此以人民幣計價的資產將是良好的長期投資品種，特別是在美國和歐洲的主權債務擔憂已影響到對美元和歐元的信心之時。

????中國官方數據顯示，以人民幣結算的中國國際貿易比例已從2009年政府首次允許中國企業用人民幣結算貿易時的0%，相應地升至近7%。渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)預計，到2015年以人民幣結算的中國進口貿易比例將從如今的約1%升至20%。

????分析師們期待這種轉變已有時日，但為何是現在？一個原因可能是中國政府的通脹擔憂。道明證券（TD Securities）駐新加坡的分析師雷蒙德?洪表示，離岸人民幣交易是抗擊中國通脹的一種方式。通過允許貿易資本流入留在海外，中國政府將能遏制涌入中國的資金流，從而抑制通脹壓力。此舉也能增加中國商人的投資選擇，但洪指出目前仍不是很清楚，離岸賬戶持有的人民幣可進行怎樣的投資。

????另一個原因可能是希望減少以美元結算的交易。“這并非是因為他們對人民幣國際化特別感興趣，”一位駐新加坡的交易員表示，“而是為了促成不以美元結算的雙邊貿易。”這可能有助于中國外匯儲備的多元化；目前中國的外匯儲備中美元資產占絕對多數。

????即便中國現在開始試水，距人民幣在國際市場上自由交易仍有很長的路要走。首先，提供離岸人民幣銀行服務的邏輯障礙很大，因為交易通常需要獲得中國內地高管或政府官員的批準。中國也不一定希望人民幣快速外流，特別是如果海外交易影響到其對人民幣/美元匯率的管理的話。大多數分析師都認為，進行一些再平衡符合中國和全球經濟的長期利益，但快速的再平衡可能帶來一些摩擦和不和諧因素。這些新穎的舉措短期內肯定不會對市場有明顯影響。

????不過，緩慢放開人民幣交易，似乎符合逐步放松人民幣盯住美元匯率的呼聲。在這樣的情況下，更富活力的人民幣交易市場可能產生廣泛的經濟影響。例如，一些實施美元盯住匯率的亞洲經濟體(如香港)可能最終改而盯住人民幣。但鑒于美元波動對中國影響仍大，這種情況短期內不太可能出現。

????更普遍來看，放開人民幣交易及放松人民幣盯住美元匯率的舉動，可能有助于很多國家減少將美元作為外匯儲備貨幣。這樣的轉變如果能有序進行，將是良性的再平衡；如果過快，則可能帶來不可預知的經濟和政治后果。

????這些問題可能是中國政府在緩慢推進人民幣正常化的過程中所不能忘卻的。在這個推進過程中，當前放開小規模人民幣離岸交易的舉動只是一小步，但不管怎樣，仍是須關注的重要步驟。

????Will the renminbi be sold at a bank near you? Perhaps not immediately, but a push to open up overseas trading of China's notoriously restricted currency does seem to be underway.

????In a late-April move that drew significant attention, Singapore bid to become the first offshore trading hub for China's currency, the renminbi (RMB), outside Hong Kong and Mainland China. The announcement follows China's decision last summer to allow the currency to be bought and sold in Hong Kong, and a similar move in January that paved the way for a Chinese bank to trade renminbi in New York.

????Together, the three announcements weave a complicated story of shifting economic and political realities. The most obvious aspect of the story: global demand for RMB is increasing. As China's economy continues to post steady growth, investors have warmed to the idea that the currency will inevitably appreciate over time, and that, as a result, RMB-denominated assets will be a good long-term investment, particularly as sovereign debt concerns in the United States and Europe have eroded confidence in the U.S. dollar and the euro.

????The percentage of China's international trade that is conducted in RMB has correspondingly spiked from zero percent in 2009, when the government first allowed Chinese firms to settle deals using RMB, to nearly 7% today, according to data from the Chinese government. Standard Chartered expects the share of China's imports purchased with RMB to reach 20% in 2015 from about 1% at present.

????Analysts have long expected such a shift, but why is it happening now? One reason may be the Chinese government's concerns about inflation. Raymond Hung, an analyst with TD Securities in Singapore, says offshore RMB trading serves as a way to counter Chinese inflation. By allowing capital inflows from trade to remain offshore, the Chinese government will stem the tide of money rushing into China and thus dampen inflationary pressure. The move could also potentially open up new investment options for Chinese business people, though Hung notes that it is still unclear exactly how account holders will be allowed to invest RMB held in offshore accounts.

????Another factor may well be a desire to conduct less business using the U.S. dollar. "The move is not because they're particularly interested in internationalizing the currency," says one trader based in Singapore, "But to facilitate greater bilateral trade agreements that would exclude U.S. dollar." This could help China diversify its reserve holdings that are overwhelmingly held in U.S. dollars.

????Even if China is now testing the waters, there is still a long way to go before China lets its RMB swim freely around international markets. For starters, the logistical obstacles to offering offshore banking services with RMB are considerable, as transactions typically require approval by executives or government officials on the mainland. Nor would China necessarily want rapid RMB outflows, especially if overseas trading limits its ability to manage its currency against the U.S. dollar. Most analysts agree that it is in the long-term interest of both China and the global economy for some rebalancing to take place, but a rapid rebalancing could prove jarring. While the measures are novel, they certainly won't move markets in the short-term.

????Still, the slow opening of RMB trade seems to correspond with a desire to gradually loosen the renminbi's peg to the dollar. In this context, more dynamic RMB trading markets could have broad economic implications. For instance, some Asian economies that have their currencies pegged to the U.S. dollar (Hong Kong, for example) could eventually choose to peg to the RMB instead. But given that China is still so reliant on the U.S. dollar's movement, that is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

????More broadly, a move to free up trading of the RMB and loosen China's currency peg could help facilitate a trend in which many countries move away from the U.S. dollar as their reserve currency. Such a shift, though it could prove to be a healthy rebalancing if it unfolds in an orderly manner, could also have unpredictable economic and political consequences if it happens too swiftly.

????These are the concerns China's government is likely to keep in mind as it slowly moves toward currency normalization. In the course of this march, the current moves to open up small trading operations overseas are baby steps, but they are important to watch nevertheless.