????5月3日，在《連線》雜志（WIRED）舉辦的《設計顛覆創新商業大會》（Disruptive by Design Business Conference）上，比爾?蓋茨對能源的現狀以及可能取代石油和煤的高科技能源產品進行了探討。

????蓋茨表示，盡管最近日本的福島核反應堆發生了大災難，但是核能仍然存在巨大的應用潛力。他指出，核的能源生產能力是煤的“100萬倍”。他充滿諷刺地說道：“火電站也會奪去人的生命，但每次只會死幾個人，難怪政客們喜歡這種發電方式?！?/p>

????事實上，在蓋茨看來，福島核反應堆災難說明，一方面，多年來核技術進步乏善可陳；另一方面，從創新和投資的角度看，核技術已經日臻成熟。

????“核反應堆比較早的一個應用是核潛艇?！彼硎荆骸爸?，它們升級到第二代，后來由于三里島核事故，加之火電的原因，那個應用就被關閉了。此后就基本沒什么新設計可言了?！鄙w茨指出，福島核反應堆是基于20世紀60年代設計的第二代核反應堆。它與未來的第四代核電站有天壤之別。[注：蓋茨是核反應堆設計初創公司地球能源公司（TerraPower）的投資人。]第四代核反應堆采用更為先進的方法處理“殘熱”，且能徹底繞開此問題。殘熱產生自反應堆中殘余的放射能。

????另一將被證明有助于核創新的重要工具是軟件仿真。利用軟件仿真，核電站就能預測到地震和海嘯般的波浪等地質變化。“人類根本無法預測這類事?！钡?，蓋茨希望，到2020年，終有一個第四代核電站設計能夠付諸實踐，而且，到2030年，能夠再按照此設計建成百余座核電站。

????在演講中，蓋茨還涉及到能源生產的其他潛在形式，包括氫能和太陽能。蓋茨認為，氫能不大可能成為主流能源，他對此的態度充其量也就是不冷不熱。

????“我從來都無法真正理解氫能，”他表示：“對于任何問題來說，它從來都不是什么解決方案，不過是存儲能源的一種潛在方式罷了。它不過是一種化工產品，雖然是非常了不起的化工產品，但如今所有的應用都是按容積計算的。而且，事實表明，氫氣非常易燃，氫火焰極為熾熱，但卻是無形的。”

????蓋茨認為，太陽能有三個發展趨勢：用于沙漠中的多用途網、辦公樓和商業場所頂上的裝置以及居民住宅頂上的太陽能板。

????“如果你喜歡外形靈巧的東西，那就買個屋頂上用的太陽能裝置，”他表示：“如果你喜歡麻煩，那就添置沙漠中用的那類網?！北M管如此，太陽能應用仍然是任重而道遠，這在某種程度上是電池容量所致。假設你通過太陽能可獲得50%的能量，你需要應付諸如以下的問題：將能量儲存起來，以備晚上使用；如果是在完全不見陽光的沙漠里，就得儲存足夠兩周用的能量才行。蓋茨還表示，欲適應上述情形，比我們今天采用的任何電池技術都要難上“100倍”。

????如果太陽能技術尚處于初級階段，那蓋茨家中是否完全不用太陽能板呢？

????“噢，與所有人一樣，我們也喜歡‘靈巧可愛的’東西?！彼麑εc會者表示：“我確實說過，有錢人可以為所欲為。”

????譯者：大海

????At WIRED's Disruptive by Design Business Conference today, Bill Gates discussed the current state of energy and potential technology replacements for oil and coal.

????Gates suggested there's much more potential for nuclear energy, despite the recent disaster with Japan's Fukushima reactor. As he sees it, nuclear has a "factor million" of energy creation compared with coal. And as he quipped, "coal plants kill, but they only kill a few at a time, which is highly preferred by politicians."

????Really, the Fukushima reactor incident in his opinion is evident of just how little nuclear technology has improved over time and how ripe the technology is for innovation and investment.

????"They had a design which worked on a submarine," he said. "Then they went to generation 2 and got shut down due to Three Mile and coal in particular. There wasn't much design after that." Fukishima, Gates pointed out, was an older second-generation reactor based off 1960s design. Put side-by-side with future fourth-generation plants, the difference is night and day. (Note: Gates is an investor in TerraPower, a nuclear reactor design startup.) Fourth generation reactors have better ways of dealing with "afterheat," heat created by leftover radioactivity in a reactor, and could circumvent the problem completely.

????Another important tool that will prove helpful with nuclear innovation is software simulation, which will help plants anticipate scenarios like earthquakes and tsunami-like waves. There is "no way humans can predict these things." It's Gates' hope that one of several fourth-generation nuclear plant designs will get built by 2020, and that by 2030, that particular design will be emulated with hundreds more built.

????He also addressed other potential forms of energy creation, including hydrogen and solar. On the former, Gates was lukewarm at best about its potential as a mainstream source.

????"I've never understood that [hydrogen]," he said. "It was never a solution to anything, just a potential way to store energy. . . It's just a chemical, and it's a really nice chemical, but all of our applications are per volume-type applications. And it turns out it's actually quite flammable. A hydrogen flame is very, very hot, but invisible."

????Gates broke down solar into three trends: utility girds in deserts, installations on office roofs and commercial spaces, and panels on residential roofs.

????"If you want cute, go for stuff on the roof," he said. "If you're interested in the problem, go for the [grids] in the desert." Still, solar has a very long way to go, part of which has to do with battery capacity. If you're getting say, 50% of energy through solar, you have to deal with factors like stashing enough energy away for the evening and even dealing with two-week periods in the desert where sunlight goes missing entirely. According to Gates, accommodating such scenarios is a "factor of 100" more demanding than any battery technology we have today.

????So if solar is such an infant technology, does that mean the Gates home is solar panel-free?

????"Oh, we like to do 'cute' like everyone," he told the conference. "I did say rich people can do whatever they want."