????當上周標準普爾(S&P)邁出前所未有的一步，將美國列入負面觀察，即未來美國信用評級可能從不容置疑的AAA級下調，投資者的反應和這一年來聽到壞消息時差不多：打了個哈欠而已。

????似乎沒有什么能阻止信貸市場和股票市場的牛市：三場戰爭，萬億美元赤字，9%的失業率，5美元/加侖的汽油價格，地震，颶風，核熔毀，主權債務違約，抑或打盹的空中交通管制員都不能。除非真人秀女星史努姬接過美聯儲(Fed)主席一職 (“她的膚色是曬黑的棕褐色，她身材勻稱，她已做好準備”)，我們認為短期內這股“向上喊價”的勢頭不會終結。

????當然，這沒有放緩資金流入零售貸款基金，又有5.32億美元(數據來源：Lipper FMI)撤出現有的市政基金和共同基金，導致今年總額超過了120億美元，進一步加劇了“太多現金追逐太少交易”的失衡現象。

????不過，該等式的“太少交易”部分可能正在發生變化。活躍于一季度的再融資、重新定價和股息資本重組活動在經歷了地緣政治動蕩期間的暫時停歇后，現已開始回升，有些待完成的交易規模相當大。IASIS、Manitowoc和Owens-Illinois的規模都超過了10億美元，而亞洲投資者對Frac Tech Services 的杠桿收購交易也將帶來17億美元的融資交易。

????低門檻貸款也在大幅回升。據標準普爾旗下研究機構LCD稱，年初以來的低門檻貸款額已達到龐大的303億美元，遠遠高于上年同期少得可憐的17億美元。除了IASIS，Neiman Marcus也在尋求20億美元再融資。

????談到這里，不妨將二次抵押貸款也加入回升名單。雖然此類貸款額仍遠低于2006-2007年的峰值，但需求在改善。對于投資者，吸引力在于收益率；二次抵押貸款一季度平均利率為倫敦銀行間同業拆借利率+975個基點，包括下限和初始發行折扣(OID)。發行人優選二次抵押貸款，而非夾層融資(mezzanine)，是因為后者更貴(12%的現金利率加3%的應付非貨幣利率)，而且通常提前償還的罰金更高。

????據《華爾街日報》(WSJ)報道，對沖基金的管理資產規模現已恢復至(且預計將超過)三年前在信貸危機爆發前的歷史高點2萬億美元。對沖基金再度遇熱，大量投資者追逐收益率并愿意為此承擔更高的風險。

????如果之前你認為糟糕的頭條新聞會降低2011年成為信貸市場好年份的概率，現在可以重新思考一下了。美國銀行美林(BoA Merrill Lynch)預計杠桿貸款和高收益率債券發行額將分別達到3,000億美元和3,250億美元，顯著高于去年的2,330億美元和2,840億美元(新高)。不妨設想如果有一點好消息，情況將會怎樣。

????資深市場人士坦言他們驚詫于經濟基本面不佳背景下信貸活動的活躍。另一方面，企業盈利雖然稱不上強勁，但延續穩步向上趨勢。利率和通脹仍保持較低水平。當然，還有投資者口袋里那些已經放不住的現金。

????雖然美國作為審慎財政管理者的名聲受損，沒人相信美國正朝著垃圾評級發展。但我們確實在大量買入垃圾債券。

????本文作者Randy Schwimmer是Churchill Financial的高級董事總經理兼資本市場主管。

????When S&P took the unprecedented step last week of placing the U.S. on negative watch for a ratings downgrade from its once-unassailable triple-A perch, investors reacted the same way they have all year to the drumbeat of bad news: With a yawn.

????Seems like nothing will stop the bull market in both credit and equities. Not three wars, trillion dollar deficits, 9% unemployment, $5 gas prices, earthquakes, tsunamis, nuclear meltdowns, sovereign defaults, or snoozing air traffic controllers. Short of Snooki taking over the Fed Chairman's seat ("She's tan, she's fit, she's ready"), we don't see the "bid 'em up" momentum ending anytime soon.

????Certainly it's not slowing cash in-flows into retail loan funds, which saw another $532 million (per Lipper FMI) exiting muni and mutual accounts. That brings the year's total to over $12 billion, further exacerbating the technical imbalance between too much cash chasing too few deals.

????The "too few deals" part of that equation may be changing. Refinancings, repricings and dividend recaps – features of the frothy first quarter, but stalled during the geopolitical turmoil – are resuming with some pretty hefty candidates. IASIS, Manitowoc, and Owens-Illinois are all over $1 billion in size. Frac Tech Services, a new Asian fund LBO, will add $1.7 billion to the pipeline.

????Covenant-lites also seems poised for an upswing. LCD says that year-to-date cov-lite volume is a whopping $30.3 billion, up from a measly $1.7 billion for the same period last year. Besides IASIS, Neiman Marcus is shopping around for a $2 billion refi.

????While you're at it, add second-liens to the list of comeback kids. While volume is nowhere near the heady days of 2006-07, second-lien structures are finding willing buyers. For investors, the attraction is yield; spreads for the first quarter averaged L+975, including floors and OID. Issuers prefer second-lien to mezzanine, which is more expensive (12% cash plus 3% PIK), and typically carries higher prepayment penalties.

????The WSJ reports hedge fund AUM are restored to (and predicted to beat) the record $2 trillion levels set just before the credit crunch three years ago. Hedge managers again have plenty of buyers looking for yield and willing to stomach more risk to get it.

????If you thought scary headlines would hurt prospects for 2011 being a banner in the credit markets, think again. BoA Merrill Lynch forecasts leveraged loan and high-yield bond issuance to hit $300 billion and $325 billion, respectively. That's well ahead of last year's numbers of $233 billion for loans and $284 billion (a record) for bonds. Just imagine where we'd end up with a little good news.

????Market veterans confide their amazement how deal activity is motoring through all the negative economic fundamentals. On the other hand, corporate earnings, while hardly robust, continue their steady upward trend. And both interest rates and inflation remain comfortably low. And, of course, there's all that cash burning holes in investors' pockets.

????Despite its frayed reputation as a prudent fiscal manager, no one believes the U.S. itself is headed for junk status. But we're certainly filling up on the stuff.

????Randy Schwimmer is senior managing director and head of capital markets with Churchill Financial.