????不妨先來看看市場。上周，1,000萬美元希臘債務的年保費突破了140萬美元，而10年期希臘債券的收益率達到令人難以置信的15%。愛爾蘭和葡萄牙的公司債息差也創下了新高。

????投資者逃離希臘、愛爾蘭和葡萄牙，導致了歐元區現有的一個問題。去年歐盟一直在救助弱國以及大到不能成功的銀行(too-big-to-succeed banks)，而沒有解決導致弱國出現問題的首要因素——生產率問題。

????但由于歐洲央行不遺余力的抗通脹努力，歐元/美元現距離2008年全球經濟即將迸裂前創下的歷史高點已不到10%。歐元漲得越高，滯重的歐洲經濟承受的壓力就越大。這種狀況能持續多久？

????對凱恩斯箴言的最新曲解是，市場的非理性狀態或許能持續至歐洲弱國或其銀行業債務償付問題出現后。當投資者最終搞明白時，下跌可能是無情的。

????“我們現在正從懸崖上探出頭去，”Guggenheim Partners的首席投資官斯考特?邁納德表示。他預計隨著投資者最終認清歐洲問題的嚴重性，歐元/美元將從最近的1.46美元 (見上圖) 跌至平價，甚至更低。“如果你把所有數據加起來，就會發現逃無可逃。”

????令人不快的計算始于銀行業。如果次貸危機在歐洲重演，歐洲銀行業具有強大的政治影響力——但財力不足，透明度不高，若出現主權債務違約的最糟情形，將受嚴重沖擊。

????歐洲三個弱國僅占歐盟年經濟產值5%。但歐洲銀行業持有1,470億美元希臘主權債券以及1,150億美元愛爾蘭和葡萄牙債券，其中1,080億美元債券由這三國之外的歐盟成員國銀行持有。

????總之，相比美國，在歐洲維持銀行業健康對于經濟增長更具重要性。根據經合組織(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) 估算，銀行業承擔著歐元區信貸融資量的74%。而在房利美(Fannie Mae)的按揭貸款中，銀行業占比僅24%。

????“問題始于資本金不足以及千絲萬縷的關聯，一個局部問題很容易演變成系統性問題，”位于布魯塞爾的歐洲政策研究中心(Center for European Policy Studies)主任丹尼爾?格羅斯表示，“但很難給出一個數字來說明有多糟。”

????今春監管部門的再次壓力測試未能提振人們對銀行業的信心，此次測試未包括主權債務違約情景。對于銀行業真實狀況的擔憂可能導致一旦主權債務危機爆發，就會演變成地區性問題，并進而在整個歐洲大陸蔓延。

????迄今為止，歐洲央行及歐洲政客們所采取的措施僅足以維持局勢不失控。一旦儲戶信心喪失，弱國仍將面臨巨大風險。

????導致去年秋季愛爾蘭只能接受不得人心的救助計劃的正是海外儲戶擠提。據邁納德估算，截至2月份，愛爾蘭銀行業的非居民存款已較上年同期銳減49%。

????迄今為止，葡萄牙銀行業尚未有擠提跡象。但格羅斯擔心一旦資金開始撤離希臘，將會發生的情況——更不消說經濟規模大于另外兩個受助國的西班牙了。隨著歐洲央行加息，失業率高達20%的經濟將更顯滯重，銀行業的虧損可能擴大。

????“我認為希臘、愛爾蘭或葡萄牙要解決問題，就必須削減債務，”邁納德表示。如果是這樣的話，他補充說，“我們預計未來18-24個月歐洲將出現大范圍的信貸緊縮。”

????美元也將上漲，信不信由你。

????Not that you'd know the difference to look at the market. The annual cost of insuring $10 million of Greek debt soared past $1.4 million this week, and the yield on 10-year Greek bonds hit an eye-watering 15%. Credit spreads hit new highs in Ireland and Portugal too.

????Investor flight from Greece, Ireland and Portugal has the makings of an existential problem for the euro zone. The European Union has spent the past year bailing out weak states and their too-big-to-succeed banks, without addressing the productivity problems that laid the weaker states low in the first place.

????Yet the euro, thanks to the inflation-squashing vigor of the European Central Bank, is now trading within 10% of the all-time high it hit against the dollar in 2008, just before the global economy came apart at the seams. The higher the euro goes, the more stress on laboring European economies. How long can this go on?

????In an ugly new twist on Keynes' aphorism, it is starting to look like the market can stay irrational longer than Europe's weaker states – or their banks -- can stay solvent. When investors finally catch on, the fall could be brutal.

????"We're peering over the precipice right now," says Scott Minerd, chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners. He is betting the euro will fall from a recent $1.46 (see chart, right) toward parity with the dollar or even beyond, as investors finally divine the extent of Europe's problems: "There is just no way out when you start to add up all the numbers."

????The unhappy math starts with the banks. In a replay of the subprime crisis here, the banks in Europe are politically powerful -- but financially weak, largely opaque and highly exposed to the worst case scenario, in this case a sovereign default.

????The three weak European states account for just 5% of annual European Union economic output. But EU banks hold $147 billion of Greek sovereign bonds and $115 billion of Irish and Portuguese debt – including $108 billion of bonds held by EU banks outside those countries.

????And if anything, keeping the banks healthy over there is more important to growth than it is here. Banks are responsible for 74% of credit extension in the euro area, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates. That compares with just 24% in the land of Fannie Mae mortgages.

????"The problems start with weak capitalization and a lot of interconnectedness, which means problems in one place can easily become systemic," says Daniel Gros, director of the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels. "But it's hard to put a number on exactly how bad it is."

????Confidence in the banks hasn't been helped by regulators' failure to include a sovereign default in the stress tests they are running again this spring. Fears about what the banks really look like could kindle a flare-up of the sovereign debt crisis into a regional headache into a Continent-wide contagion.

????So far, the ECB and European politicians have done just enough to keep the pot simmering without rolling into full boil. But the weak states remain vulnerable to a loss of confidence by depositors.

????It is an international bank run that pushed Ireland into its unpopular bailout last fall. Deposits held at Irish banks by nonresidents plunged 49% from a year ago through February, Minerd estimates.

????So far, there is no evidence of a run on Portuguese banks. But Gros worries what might happen if funds start fleeing from Greece -- let alone Spain, which is much bigger than any of the bailout three. Its banks could face rising losses as the ECB raises rates, punishing an economy already laboring, if you will, under 20% unemployment.

????"I don't really see a solution in Greece or Ireland or Portugal that doesn't involve haircutting the debt," Minerd says. As that plays out, he adds, "We are looking at a massive credit crunch in Europe over the next 18 to 24 months."

????The dollar, believe it or not, also rises.