????高盛(Goldman Sachs)如是說。上周五，這家公司于本月第二次調低了美國一季度經濟增長預測值，并警告稱汽油價格——最新均價高至3.83美元/加侖——可能抑制消費者支出，放緩早已滯重的經濟。

????“令人擔心的一個重要原因是2011年以來汽油價格的大幅上漲——已上漲近0.70美元/加侖——這相當于一年吞噬（美國）居民收入1,000億美元”，經濟學家安德魯?提爾頓寫道。

????這意味著本以為由于工資稅免稅期，今年將有1100億美元進賬的美國人，現在可能要將這筆收入預期調低至100億美元——相當于每位男性、女性和孩子人均約33美元。以這樣的預算，要提振消費者支出并非易事。

????不過，高盛依然預期得益于招聘提速和薪資溫和上漲，2011年余下時間美國經濟將有不錯的增長。

????但高盛也承認，增長預測面臨的風險在上升。該公司已將美國一季度國內生產總值(GDP)的增長預期調低至了1.75%，低于兩周前的2.5%和上個月的3.5%。

????“消費增長重新提速是有可能的，但需要諸多因素的配合——勞動力市場繼續溫和回暖，汽油價格壓力緩解，資產價格環境溫和，從而鼓勵消費者逐步減少儲蓄，” 提爾頓寫道。

????目前，各項因素綜合狀況并非高盛期待的那樣。上周該公司三次談到，未來幾個月預計大宗商品價格將下跌，這可能緩解汽油價格壓力。今年以來，汽油批發價格已上漲31% (見右圖)。

????與此同時，高盛敦促客戶等待大宗商品價格回調，最好回調后以較低價格重新買入大宗商品期貨——這是基于供應緊張和需求穩步增長(特別是發展中國家和地區)將使大宗商品價格長期來看保持上漲的假設。

????因此，如果汽油價格回落、勞動力市場復蘇加碼，美國經濟可能真的會克服憂慮而走好。但別以為4美元/加侖的汽油價格及其并發癥已是明日黃花。未來幾年我們還將繼續為此煩惱。

????So says Goldman Sachs. The firm cut its first-quarter U.S. growth projection Friday for the second time this month, warning that the price of gasoline – up to $3.83 a gallon on average at the latest reading – could undermine consumer spending and slow an already laboring economy.

????"A key reason for concern is the sharp rise in gasoline prices so far in 2011 — nearly 70 cents per gallon — which is siphoning off household income at a run rate equivalent to $100 billion per year," writes economist Andrew Tilton.

????That means Americans who thought they would pocket $110 billion this year in aggregate thanks to the payroll tax holiday are now down to $10 billion – which amounts to about $33 for each man, woman and child. It is not easy to feed a consumer spending rebound on that sort of budget.

????That said, Goldman continues to expect the U.S.economy to expand smartly for the rest of 2011, thanks to accelerating hiring and modest wage growth.

????But it acknoweldges that risks to that forecast are growing, and slashed its first-quarter gross domestic product growth expectation to 1.75%. That's down from 2.5% two weeks ago and 3.5% as recently as last month.

????"A reacceleration in spending growth is possible, but will require a fortuitous combination of circumstances—a modest further pickup in the labor market, gasoline price relief, and a benign asset price environment that encourages consumers to gradually reduce saving," writes Tilton.

????For now, that combination is exactly what Goldman is betting on. The firm said not once, not twice but three times last week that it expects commodity prices to come down in coming months, which could ease the pressure on gas prices. They are up 31% at wholesale this year (see chart, right).

????At the same time, Goldman has been urging clients to wait for the commodity correction, all the better to buy back into commodity futures at lower prices, on the assumption tight supply and steadily rising demand (especially in the developing world) will keep prices marching higher in the long run.

????So the U.S. economy may indeed climb the wall of worry in 2011 if gas prices fall back and the labor market recovery gains steam. But don't think for a second that $4 gasoline, and its complications, is just a passing fancy. We will be fretting over that problem for years to come.