汽車行業重要的一年

????就汽車銷售而言，2011年剛剛過去的幾個月內發生了諸多事件。

????歷年來美國的經濟都充滿了變數，但是今年以來其經濟似乎病入膏肓了。對美國的財政赤字和政府債務的擔憂最近讓美國國會走到了崩潰的邊緣。中東地區的政局動蕩令黃金的成本勇創新高；大宗商品價格的不斷攀升表明通貨膨脹的陰霾已卷土重來。

????與此同時，日本地震和海嘯導致供電線路中斷，給美日汽車制造商都帶來了災難性的后果。沒有人能夠控制這些事態的發展，加上層出不窮的問題使得境況更加糟糕。由于零部件供應不足，本田（Honda）和豐田（Toyota）都紛紛削減在美國的產量。

????最為要緊的是，穩步上升的汽油價格已經激發了更多的車主購買裝有替代動力系統的小型車的興趣。來自底特律三大汽車廠商的一位高管做了粗略計算，微型和小型車的市場份額已經從原先不足20%上升到25%，豐田普銳斯（Prius）混合動力小型車再次供不應求。

????2011年過去了一個季度，對于廠家規定的型年而言已經過去了6個月，現在開始預測2011年汽車行業的贏家與輸家并非言之過早。

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A big year for autos

????2011 has already been an unusually eventful year for auto sales.

????There is economic uncertainty every year, but this year it seems to be especially virulent. New concern about the U.S. budget deficit and government debt pushed Congress to the brink; uprisings in the Middle East helped push the cost of gold to an all-time high; and growing prices of commodities raised anew the specter of inflation.

????Meanwhile the Japan earthquake and tsunami have interrupted supply lines and played havoc with production by both Japanese and American automakers. What's worse is that nobody seems to have their arms around the issues, and problems keep spreading. Because of parts shortages, both Honda and Toyota are cutting production in the U.S.

????On top of all that, steadily rising gasoline prices have renewed interest in small cars with alternative powertrains. According to one back-of-the envelope calculation by a Detroit Three executive, the market share for subcompact and compact cars has risen to 25% from the high teens, and the Toyota Prius is once again in short supply.

????With three months gone in the calendar year -- and six months in the model year -- it is not too soon to start projecting the winners and losers for 2011.

????By Alex Taylor III, senior editor at large

????贏家：美國汽車市場

????在自然災難（地震）和人為災難（由中東政局動蕩引發的油價攀升）頻繁發生的情況下，美系汽車和卡車銷量一路高歌猛進。一季度行業銷售同比上升20%，全年銷售量將突破1，300萬輛。這種業績算不上華麗，但足以讓大多數廠商實現贏利。不過，謎局亦在：底特律汽車三巨頭在遏制優惠計劃方面將獲得多大的成功。

????In the face of disasters both random (earthquakes) and predictable (instability in the Middle East leading to higher oil prices), car and truck sales have held up surprisingly well. Industry sales rose 20% in the first quarter, and are headed above 13 million for the calendar year -- no barnburner but enough for most manufacturers to stay in the black. Still uncertain: How successful the Detroit Three will be in restraining incentives.

????贏家：福特汽車

????由于未接受美國政府救助，福特汽車贏得了民眾的支持，其銷售量于今年三月份實現了超越通用汽車（GM）銷售量的佳績。這樣的成績在最近10多年來還是第二次出現。當然，來自第三方——美國J.D. Power的《消費者報告》（Consumer Reports）的高度評價，同樣讓福特贏得了廣泛支持。而且市場上福特生產的大排量福克斯（Focus）車型才剛剛上市。

????Winner: Ford Motor

????Riding a wave of public approval for stepping back from government support, as well as growing confirmation of superior performance from third-party sources (Consumer Reports, J.D. Power), Ford outsold GM in March for only the second time in more than a decade. And its high-volume Focus has only barely reached the market.

????艾克森一反底特律汽車廠商要求管理層穩定的傳統，對管理層進行大范圍的重組，其規模僅稍遜于史上亨利?福特二世對福特公司的改革力度，當時亨利?福特二世接替年邁的祖父后，引進了十位“精明小子”（Whiz Kids）。在通用汽車公布了今年一季度的銷售業績（即同比上升25%）之后， 那些擔心方方面面的變化——尤其市場營銷的變化——會帶來災難性后果的批評者不敢妄加評論了。艾克森必須帶領通用汽車度過新車型“旱期”，直到2013款雪佛蘭美宜堡（Chevy Malibu）上市。

????Winner: GM chairman and CEO Dan Ackerson

????In defiance of Detroit tradition, Akerson continued the biggest management shakeup since Henry Ford II replaced his senile grandfather and brought in the Whiz Kids. Critics who worried that all the changes -- especially in marketing -- would have an unsettling effect were quieted by GM's 25% sales increase in the first quarter. Now he has to manage GM through a new model drought until the 2013 Chevy Malibu arrives

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????贏家：現代（Hyundai）和起亞（Kia）

????現代和起亞，這兩家勢不可擋的韓國汽車新銳曾創下高于業內水平的驕人業績。如今這一幕再次上演。但不同的是，這一次它們的車型贏得了特別優勝單項獎。最新一款獲此殊榮的車型是現代伊蘭特（Elantra）。

????The two Korean steamrollers have a history of outperforming the industry and are doing so again. The difference this time is that its cars are winning individual awards for superiority. The latest: Hyundai's Elantra.

????贏家：別克（Buick）

????誰說嬰兒潮時代出生的人將永遠不可能接受其父母的醫生所開汽車的品牌？別克君越（LaCrosse），富于靈感創意的設計，加之其在中國所獲成功的光環效應，令市場為之一振。通用汽車的市場部總監喬爾.伊萬尼克將別克定位于豪華車系，可謂明智之舉。

????Who said Baby Boomers would never accept their parents' doctor's brand? Inspired new designs -- LaCrosse, Regal -- combined with the halo effect of success in China -- have supercharged results. GM marketing boss Joel Ewanick's move to market Buick as a luxury brand looks brilliant.

????當克萊斯勒公司（Chrysler）首席執行官塞爾吉奧?馬爾喬內（Sergio Marchionne）將道奇卡車（Dodge Trucks）變成獨立的拉姆品牌時，傳統人士認為此舉瘋狂之極。但是自從三季度拉姆卡車的銷售業績優于包括奔馳（Mercedes）、別克、阿庫拉（Acura）在內的很多汽車品牌之后，這些人就不敢說三道四了。在不景氣的皮卡市場上，拉姆卡車還是實現了銷售增長三分之一的杰出成績。

??? Traditionalists who thought Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne was nuts when he turned Dodge Trucks into a stand-alone Ram brand haven't been heard from since Ram outsold Mercedes, Buick, Acura and a host of others in the third quarter. In a tough market for pickups, Ram's sales are up by a third.

????受去年豐田“召回門”后遺癥的影響，這家日本汽車巨頭一季度的銷售僅僅上升了15%，而3月份單月銷售量更是下跌了8個百分點。曾經的最暢銷車型凱美瑞（Camry）將此榮譽讓位給日產奧蒂瑪（Nissan Altima）。而由于缺乏新車型，一季度雷克薩斯（Lexus）的銷量下降了4%。

????Loser: Toyota

????The Japanese behemoth continues to suffer from the hangover of last year's recall crisis. Toyota sales rose only 15% in the first quarter and actually fell 8% in March. Camry relinquished its best-selling title to Nissan's Altima. Lexus, hurting from a new-model drought was actually down 4% for the quarter.

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????盡管志在主導全球汽車市場并在美國市場實現復興，但是大眾的成績平淡無奇。大眾在美國的首款重新改裝版汽車——捷達（Jetta）——被批評人士形容為毫無新意，而將美國元素融入設計理念的帕薩特（Passat）估計同樣將深受批評。結果其一季度銷售增長率落后于行業平均水平。

??? Despite its plans for world domination and an American revival, VW fell flat. Its first U.S. redesign -- the Jetta -- was roasted by critics for its lackluster execution, the built-in-America Passat looks like it may get the same reception, and first-quarter sales increases trailed the industry average.

????輸家：薩博（Saab）

????薩博和供應商發生付款糾紛之后，汽車被迫停產，加之首席執行官突然辭職，使得其圖謀復興的努力付諸東流。由于現金流不足，薩博的生存面臨危險。

??? Its fragile efforts to revive foundered when payment disputes with suppliers halted production and its CEO abruptly resigned. With cash short, Saab's survival is officially endangered.

????輸家：精靈（Smart）

????正如一位克萊斯勒前高管所言，在超級經銷商羅杰.潘世奇放棄分銷經營的打算，并將精靈品牌交還奔馳公司之后，這款微型車似乎便不那么靈動了。備受歐洲市場青睞的靈巧車型設計理念沒能打動美國汽車消費者。在美國汽車市場小規模的銷售熱潮中，精靈未能分得一杯羹，三月份僅賣出了425輛。

??? To paraphrase a former Chrysler executive, Smart looked less so after superdealer Roger Penske relinquished his distribution deal and gave the brand back to Mercedes. What was considered cute and clever in Europe didn't translate to the U.S. Smart bucked the small car boom, selling just 425 cars in March.

????輸家：邁巴赫（Maybach）

????邁巴赫是奔馳公司旗下的超豪華品牌，然而現在它幾乎完全淡出人們的視線。相比戴姆勒與克萊斯勒的合并，這算不得一個大錯誤，但仍然缺乏解決方案。邁巴赫一季度的銷量幾乎僅為其勁敵勞斯萊斯（Rolls-Royce）的九分之一。除非邁巴赫重整雄風或是徹底停產，不然它將一直令戴姆勒公司董事長蔡澈（Dieter Zetsche）蒙羞，就像道奇翼龍（Nitro）和吉普指南者（Jeep Compass）一樣。

????Loser: Maybach

????Not quite as big a mistake as the DaimlerChrysler merger, but still lacking a resolution, Maybach, the uber-Mercedes brand, has almost vanished from sight. In the first quarter, it was outsold by arch-rival Rolls-Royce almost nine to one. Until it gets fixed or closed, it remains a stain on Daimler Chairman Dieter Zetsche's reputation. Sort of like the Dodge Nitro or Jeep Compass.