中國的綠色增長：且聽李路為何樂觀
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????中國經(jīng)濟增長的環(huán)境后果眾所周知，且觸目驚心：更多的汽車，更多的煤炭和更多的有毒污物染黑了中國的小溪和河流。不那么為人所知的是為何還有理由心存希望。 ????“今年是關(guān)鍵的一年，一個轉(zhuǎn)變的時刻，”喜馬拉雅資本管理公司（Himalaya Capital Management） 董事長李路表示。李路也是股神沃倫?巴菲特將來退休后的熱門接班候選人[最近隨著主要競爭對手戴維?索科爾同伯克希爾哈撒韋（Berkshire Hathaway）分道揚鑣，李路的入選概率上升]。 ????李路在上周《財富》雜志（Fortune）舉辦的頭腦風(fēng)暴綠色會議（Brainstorm Green）上向觀眾宣稱，中國政府正在考慮一個五年計劃，可能設(shè)立激動人心的污染減排目標(biāo)。中國的兩大電網(wǎng)目前都在測試可存儲來自于風(fēng)能、太陽能等綠色能源發(fā)電的系統(tǒng)。如果試運行證明是有效的，李路相信這將為中國政府“在短時間內(nèi)以十億瓦級別”推廣清潔能源打開了大門。 ????李路表示，這股即將到來的綠色浪潮——若果真成為現(xiàn)實——背后的推動力并不是中國巨大的二氧化碳排放量（中國已超過美國成為全球最大的溫室氣體排放國），而是中國眾多燃煤工廠排放的二氧化硫。他指出，“煤炭在中國造成的真正威脅并非二氧化碳，而是二氧化硫。這會造成人們死亡。” ????李路認為中國要迅速顯著地降低對煤炭的依賴，最佳選擇是深藏在其國土之下的天然氣儲藏。雖然中國不像美國那樣已對龐大的頁巖氣儲藏有相當(dāng)?shù)牧私猓搸r氣儲藏增加了美國天然氣產(chǎn)量，并推低了美國國內(nèi)的天然氣價格），但是李路相信中國的頁巖也蘊藏著類似的光明前景。 |
????The environmental consequences of China's economic growth are both well-known and horrifying: more cars, more coal and more toxic crud fouling its streams and rivers. Less appreciated are the reasons for hope. ????"This is a critical year, really a transformational moment," says Li Lu, the chairman of Himalaya Capital Management and a leading candidate to take over for Warren Buffett when the investing guru eventually retires. (Li's chances improved recently when leading rival David Sokol parted ways with Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB).) ????The Chinese government is mulling a five-year plan with potentially dramatic goals for reductions in pollution, Li told an audience at Fortune's Brainstorm Green conference this week. China's two major power grids are both testing systems that can store green energy from wind and solar. If they prove efficient in ongoing trials, Li believes, it will open the door to the government rolling out clean energy "on a gigawatt scale in a short amount of time." ????The driving force behind the coming green wave -- if it indeed materializes -- will not be the massive carbon dioxide output by China, which has passed the U.S. as the biggest greenhouse gas emitter. Instead it's the sulfer dioxide the country's coal plants emit, he says. "The real threat of coal in China is not the CO2 it's the SO2. It's killing people," Li says. ????Li believes that the best bet for quickly and dramatically slashing its reliance on coal are deposits of natural gas buried deep underneath the country. While not as well understood as the massive shale deposits in the U.S. that have boosted the production of natural gas and sent its price plunging, Li is confident China's shale holds similar good news. |
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