2011年的油價大漲之勢已近尾聲?
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????2011年的油價大漲之勢已近尾聲? ????油價漲漲不休已成常態。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)上周宣布,高油價狀況將持續,過去10年油價年均漲幅12.5%。華爾街正在孤注一擲于油價的進一步上漲。隨著上周四紐約原油價格觸及110美元/桶,今年累計漲幅達到17%,這個注看來押得不錯。 ????汽油價格見頂? ????但是盡管全球經濟增長加之中東石油熱點地區動蕩,仍有跡象顯示油價對于手頭緊張的消費者而言早已太高。以美國汽油需求為例,過去四周下降3.7%——能源市場跟蹤人士史蒂芬?肖克稱之為“實質性下降”。 ????不過,美國汽油價格本周已觸及3.70美元/加侖,創2008年夏季以來新高。英國的汽油零售價格也在飆升,而且由于稅收因素,英國汽油的單位加侖價格已接近美國的兩倍。而在中國,政府正努力通過壓低需求控制大宗商品價格。 ????但價格上漲和需求下降不可能長期并存,這也是為何一些市場觀察人士認為除非有新問題出現——如中東沖突再次升級,否則未來油價將轉而下跌的原因。 ????“當前的市場價格已反映了很多風險和擔憂因素,”NUS Consulting駐新澤西州帕克里奇的理查德?索坦尼亞表示,“我們認為當前市場真的不理性,除非我們再次遭遇危機,否則油價必將下跌?!?NUS Consulting為企業提供能源價格建議。 ????那么,如果需求不旺盛,為什么油價會這么高呢?看看華爾街就知道了,那里通過期貨和期權賭油價上漲的投機頭寸已達到3.23億桶當量——是Gluskin Sheff經濟學家戴維?羅森博格認為的正常值的4倍。 ????羅森博格認為,只要這些投機頭寸減少1/3,降至去年秋季美聯儲(Federal Reserve)啟動二次量化寬松前后的水平,原油價格就可能降至85-90美元/桶。 ????肖克稱,90美元/桶的油價是完全有可能的,畢竟自2010年底油價投機興起以來,經濟基本面幾無改觀。他將今年油價上漲的大部分原因歸于對沖基金和其他交易者利用杠桿、賭大宗商品價格上漲的行為。自從去年8月本?伯南克承諾將以更寬松的貨幣政策支持美國經濟,大宗商品價格展開了一輪飆升。 ????美聯儲最新的高級信貸官員調查顯示,養老基金、對沖基金等投資者加大了杠桿的使用。 ????“美聯儲正在不斷地給他們錢,因此,這些人可以賭價格上漲,” 肖克表示,“市場上由此產生的溢價可能為15-20美元?!?/p> ????索坦尼亞也表示,一旦投機行為不管出于什么原因終止,85-95美元的油價區間看來是有可能的。當然,此輪漲勢將如何結束以及何時結束尚不明了,但一個顯而易見的事實是高油價持續的時間通常較短,因為高油價會導致經濟增長放緩。 ????他還將今年的油價上漲比作2008年的那輪上漲,當時油價曾短暫上探至147美元/桶。 ????“我們當時就告訴客戶說,更高的油價預測是錯誤的,”索坦尼亞表示,他的公司為大企業提供油價對沖建議,“我們現在也是這樣告訴客戶的。” |
????Has the great oil rally of 2011 run its course? ????Rising oil prices have become a fixture. The IMF declared this week that costly oil is here to stay, after a 12.5% average annual price increase over the past decade. Wall Street is betting the ranch on further increases. With crude hitting $110 a barrel in New York Thursday, up 17% this year, it's not looking like a bad bet. ????Peak gasoline? ????But for all the talk of global economic growth and unrest in Mideast oil hotspots, there are signs that oil prices are already too high for pinched consumers to bear. U.S. gasoline demand, for instance, dropped 3.7% over the past four weeks -- which energy tracker Stephen Schork calls a "material decline." ????Yet U.S. gas prices hit $3.70 this week, their highest level since the summer of 2008. Retail prices are also soaring in the U.K., where the per-gallon price is nearly double the one here thanks to taxes, and in China, where the government is trying to get a hold on commodity prices by pushing down demand. ????But rising prices and falling demand can't co-exist for long, which is why some market watchers argue that oil prices are headed for a fall unless new problems emerge -- such as another flareup in the Middle East. ????"The market is pricing in a lot of risk and a lot of fear right now," says Richard Soultanian of NUS Consulting in Park Ridge, N.J., which advises companies on energy prices. "What we're looking at right now is really irrational, and unless we get another shock you're going to see the prices come down." ????So why are prices so high if demand is tepid? Look no further than Wall Street, where speculative bets on rising oil prices via futures and options amount to the equivalent of 323 million barrels -- four times what Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg calls a normal level. ????He says that simply reducing that position by a third, to levels seen last fall around the start of the Federal Reserve's second quantitative easing program, could bring the crude price down to $85 to $90 a barrel. ????Schork says $90 oil is entirely plausible, given how little economic fundamentals have changed since the speculative run in oil started at the end of 2010. He attributes much of this year's gains to hedge funds and other traders levering up to bet on commodity prices, which have obliged by surging since Ben Bernanke promised in late August to support the economy with looser money. ????The Fed's latest senior credit officer survey reported increased use of leverage by investors such as pension funds and hedge funds. ????"The Fed is giving these guys money so they can bet on prices going up," Schork says. "There is probably a $15 or $20 premium in the market because of it." ????Soultanian too says a price in the $85-$95 range looks likely once the speculative run ends, for whatever reason. How or when this streak might end isn't clear, obviously, but it's evident that higher oil prices are often short-lived because of the economic slowing they cause. ????He likens this year's runup to the one in 2008 that briefly took the oil price to $147. ????"We were telling clients then that the forecasts for even higher prices were wrong," says Soultanian, whose firm advises big companies on oil price hedging. "We're telling them the same thing now." ???? |