????當(dāng)日本的核電站工作人員正忙著遏制這場25年來全球最嚴(yán)重的核危機(jī)事態(tài)，全球各國政府不禁開始拷問核電的安全性。德國已暫時關(guān)閉建成年代較早的核電站，中國推遲了新核電項目的審批，而其他國家，包括美國在內(nèi)，都在呼吁應(yīng)更加嚴(yán)格地審查核政策及電廠選址。

????一些分析人士猜測本次危機(jī)最終將推高全球能源價格。上周前4個交易日，紐約4月份交貨的天然氣價格已上漲1.8%，至4.244美元/百萬英熱單位。天然氣期貨也比一年前上漲了3.4%。而在由彭博（Bloomberg）新聞社進(jìn)行的一項調(diào)查中， 14位分析師中有6位認(rèn)為由于日本核反應(yīng)堆受損將部分分流原本可能運至美國的液化天然氣，天然氣期貨價格漲勢將持續(xù)至4月1日。

????此外，Pritchard Capital Partners駐休斯頓的分析師阿努基?沙馬認(rèn)為，如果日本的教訓(xùn)導(dǎo)致（核電行業(yè)）監(jiān)管升級、成本上升，（能源）價格也可能長期上漲。

????此次危機(jī)已令整個核電行業(yè)膽戰(zhàn)心驚。由于放射性物質(zhì)水平升高，日本建議不要給嬰幼兒飲用自來水，這條新聞向全世界發(fā)出了警報，美國率先禁止部分日本食品進(jìn)口。

????事態(tài)發(fā)展無疑令人驚恐，但此次危機(jī)可能更大程度上會起到警醒的作用，而不會顛覆整個核電行業(yè)。凱投宏觀（Capital Economics）的高級經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家安德魯?凱寧漢姆在上周發(fā)表的一份報告中，就此次危機(jī)為什么對全球能源市場的影響有限給出了兩條有力證據(jù)。

????第一，許多人認(rèn)為可能改變?nèi)蚰茉词袌龅乃^“核復(fù)興”，并不像看上去那樣是一場大規(guī)模復(fù)興。的確，日本相當(dāng)一部分發(fā)電量（約30%） 來自于核電。而且在此次危機(jī)發(fā)生前，日本也和許多國家一樣正計劃在今后幾年提高核電占比。但凱寧漢姆援引國際能源署（International Energy Association）的數(shù)據(jù)稱，核電在全球能源市場中的比重不會達(dá)到那樣高。國際能源署預(yù)計從現(xiàn)在到2030年，核電發(fā)電量將增長20%，但同期核電占發(fā)電總量的比重將從14%降至11%。況且，這在全球能源總供應(yīng)量中的占比也相對較小，僅為6%。

????其次，中國是核電大國。今后數(shù)年，中國的核電需求將居全球首位，占預(yù)期新增核電量的45%。目前，中國已暫停了新核電項目的審批，但凱寧漢姆預(yù)計中國最終將繼續(xù)實行其核計劃。

????事實上，中國可能別無選擇。作為全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，中國目前在能源方面幾乎完全依賴化石燃料，大部分發(fā)電量來自于高污染的煤炭發(fā)電。官員們已承認(rèn)這種狀況是不可持續(xù)的，畢竟中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長已經(jīng)造成電力需求幾乎永難滿足。中國國家主席胡錦濤表示，他希望到2020年，可再生能源占到中國能源利用總量的15%，中國目前也在發(fā)展風(fēng)電、太陽能和水力發(fā)電。毫無疑問，核電也列于其中——中國目前建造核反應(yīng)堆的速度比世界上任何國家都要快，項目數(shù)量占全球核電廠建造總量的60%。

????顯然，日本核危機(jī)將對全球各國政府今后處理核能發(fā)電的方式產(chǎn)生影響，但這并不一定會導(dǎo)致能源價格總體走高。

????As crews in Japan scramble to contain what has been called the world's worst nuclear crisis in 25 years, governments around the world are questioning the safety of nuclear power. Germany temporarily shut down its older nuclear power stations, while China has postponed approval of new nuclear plants. Other countries, including the U.S., are calling for more scrutiny of nuclear policies and plant locations.

????Some analysts speculate that the crisis could eventually send the world's energy prices higher. Natural gas for April delivery rose 1.8% to $4.244 per million British thermal units in the first four days of trading this week in New York. Natural gas futures are up 3.4% from a year ago. And in a survey by Bloomberg news, 6 of 14 analysts say that natural gas futures will rise through April 1 on speculation that damaged reactors in Japan will divert cargoes of liquefied natural gas from the U.S.

????What's more, Anuj Sharma, an analyst at Pritchard Capital Partners in Houston, says prices could rise in the long-term if lessons from Japan result in more regulations that could add to costs.

????The crisis has rightfully sent jitters across the nuclear industry. News that Japan advised against feeding tap water to infants due to higher radiation levels sounded alarms globally, with the U.S. being the first nation to block some food imports from Japan.

????No doubt the developments are scary, but the crisis may serve more as a cautionary tale than the big game-changer over nuclear power. In a report released this week, Capital Economics senior economist Andrew Kenningham makes two strong points for why the crisis will have limited impact on global energy markets.

????For one, the so-called "nuclear renaissance" that many say could transform global energy markets is not as big a renaissance as it might seem. It's true that a significant portion of Japan's electricity output -- about 30% -- comes from nuclear. And like many countries before the crisis, Japan was planning to boost that share over the next several years. But Kenningham, citing estimates from the International Energy Association, says that nuclear power isn't forecast to be that big of a player in global energy markets. The association estimates that generation of nuclear power would rise by 20% between now and 2030, but the share of nuclear in electricity generation would fall from 14% to 11% during the same period. And in the grand scheme of things, this would make up a relatively small portion, 6%, of the world's total energy supply.

????The big player in nuclear is China. In the coming years, it is poised to have the world's biggest appetite, accounting for 45% of expected growth in nuclear power. China has currently suspended approvals of new nuclear plants, but Kenningham expects it to go ahead with its nuclear program eventually.

????In fact, it may have no other choice. China, the world's second-largest economy, currently depends on fossil fuels for almost all of its energy -- much of it generated from high-polluting coal. Officials have acknowledged that's not sustainable given that the country's rapidly growing economy has produced an almost insatiable appetite for more power. President Hu Jintao has said he wants renewable sources to produce 15% of China's energy by 2020 and and it's currently developing wind, solar and hydroelectric power. No doubt nuclear power is in the mix -- China is building nuclear reactors faster than any other country in the world, with projects representing 60% of all nuclear power plant construction globally.

????It's clear that Japan's crisis will have an impact on the way governments around the world handle nuclear energy production in the future, but that won't necessarily result in higher energy prices overall.