????我們正身處第二次互聯網泡沫。這一信號已經很明顯：初期和晚期估值變得越來越反常，而且日益泡沫化。自上一次互聯網泡沫以來，在硅谷聘請人才還從未像現在這么難。泡沫時期賺錢的法則和正常時期截然不同。這些法則到底是什么？不同之處又在哪？新創企業該如何利用它們？

????要理解互聯網經濟的未來，我們首先要知道它的歷史：

????? 黃金時期（1970-1995）：企業不斷成長，連續盈利（至少5個季度后）適時上市。

????? 泡沫時期（1995-2000）：公開市場在拼命招攬創意，“是個點子就行”。沒人在意企業的歷史狀況和盈利記錄，企業只需對未來的發展做出模糊的承諾，就能進行首次公開募股（IPO）。

????? 創業冷清/回復本原時期（2000-2010）：沒有首次公開募股，僅有少數風投還在砸錢。這是一個缺乏信心的時期，創業市場非常冷清，并購交易也寥寥無幾。

????? 新的泡沫期（2011- 2014）：泡沫再度來襲……

????過去十年，企業家精神取得了大的發展。在創業冷清/回復本原時期，大家都清楚了新創企業是一個臨時組織，旨在尋找可重復、可擴展的商業模式。隨著新創企業學會如何獲取成功，敏捷+客戶開發這一理念進入了詞典。

????不過現在，創建公司的法則再次發生了改變。

????未來三年，新創企業的退出方式既包括首次公開募股，又包括并購。而且，和上次泡沫不同，在本次泡沫時期，掀起第一波公開發售潮的是那些展現了“真正”巨額收益、盈利，并擁有大量客戶的公司（比如Facebook、Zynga、Twitter、LinkedIn、Groupon等。）。

????不過，和所有泡沫一樣，過早的進行首次公開募股，將會吸引很多財務狀況尚不夠出色的公司。高質量的首次公開募股將會不斷減少，泡沫也會隨之破滅。與此同時，收購機會將大量出現。隨著新興互聯網市場不斷涌現，一些大公司將無法跟上創新的步伐，他們將采用收購新創企業的辦法進行“創新”。最終，新的流動性將會出現，例如買賣非流動性資產的私募股權交易平臺（例如SecondMarket、SharesPost等。）。

????如今的新創企業開發周期短，而且能迅速吸引到用戶，所以他們能夠充分利用退出機制。不過，他們應當牢記以下法則：

????交易次序：每一個市場的買家數量都有限，交易者的數量也有限，它們都希望填補特定的產品/市場空白。所以確定具體去找誰、和誰談，這些都是可以預料的。對于某家特定的新創企業而言，這個名單上估計也就幾百號人。

????廣泛采用：能夠在泡沫時期勝出的，將是那些產品被廣泛采用（利用免費增值商業模式、病毒性增長、低成本等）和大量分發的公司（例如Facebook、Android/蘋果應用程序商店）。他們將首先把重點放在獲得大量用戶上，然后再開始取得收益。

????曝光度：在創業冷清時期，大家的忠告是將注意力放到發展公司上，不要太招搖。不過現在的建議變了。就像每次泡沫一樣，現在是僧多粥少。雖然為了產品，你仍然要極度專注于自己的客戶，不過現在你和你的公司都需要到處上鏡，讓自己看起來不同凡響。出席各種會議并發表演講；發表大量博客；利用社交網絡宣傳；打造品牌。在新泡沫時期，公共關系部門也許是你最需要的，所以在這方面投資吧。

經驗教訓：

????? 我們正身處新一輪新創企業投資潮中——這是另一次泡沫的開始。

????? 在泡沫時期，流動性規則對于新創企業和投資者而言是不一樣的。

????? 請關注這些法則，并注意如何遵守它們。

????? 和上次泡沫不一樣，這次的泡沫不是兜售“愿景”或概念。

????? 你必須要做出業績。這就要求你采用敏捷+客戶開發的理念打造公司。

????? 把握了速度、節奏和關鍵性運轉周期的新創企業將取得成功。

????本文作者史蒂夫?布蘭科是《四步的頓悟》（The Four Steps to the Epiphany）一書的作者。布蘭科在書中詳述了自己發掘客戶的方法，它能幫助新創企業降低風險、提升成功幾率。布蘭科曾創立過多家新創企業，目前已退休。他在斯坦福大學、加州大學伯克利分校哈斯商學院（Haas School of Business）和哥倫比亞大學授課。他的著作以及本文更詳盡的版本，請參閱www.steveblank網站。

????譯者：項航

????We're now in the second Internet bubble. The signals are loud and clear: Seed and late-stage valuations are getting frothy and wacky, and hiring talent in Silicon Valley is the toughest it's been since the dotcom bubble. The rules for making money are different in a bubble than in normal times. What are they, how do they differ and what can startups do to take advantage of them?

????To understand where we're going, it's first important to know where we've been:

????? The Golden Age (1970-1995): Build a growing business with a consistently profitable track record (after at least 5 quarters,) and go public when it's time.

????? Dotcom Bubble (1995-2000): "Anything goes" as public markets clamor for ideas, vague promises of future growth and IPOs happen without regard for history or profitability.

????? Lean Startups/Back to Basics (2000-2010): No IPOs, limited VC cash and lack of confidence fuels "lean startup" era with limited M&A activity.

????? The New Bubble: (2011- 2014): Here we go again….

????Over the last decade, entrepreneurship has come a long way. In the Lean Startup/Back to Basic era it was understood that a startup is a temporary organization designed to search for a repeatable and scalable business model. The concepts of the Agile + Customer Development entered the lexicon as startups learned how to build for success.

????Now the rules for building a company are changing again.

????Startup exits in the next three years will include IPOs as well as acquisitions. And, unlike the last bubble, this bubble's first wave of public offerings will be companies showing "real" revenue, profits and customers in massive numbers (think Facebook, Zynga, Twitter, LinkedIn, Groupon, etc.).

????But, like with all bubbles, these early IPOs will attract companies with less stellar finances, the quality IPO pipeline will diminish rapidly and the bubble will pop. At the same time, acquisition opportunities will expand as large, existing companies, unable to keep up with the pace of innovation in these emerging Internet markets, will "innovate" by buying startups. Finally, new forms of liquidity will emerge such as private-market stock exchanges for buying and selling illiquid assets (e.g., SecondMarket, SharesPost, etc.).

????Today's startups have all the tools needed to take advantage of the exit window, due to their short development cycles and abilities to rapidly adopt customers. These are the rules they should keep in mind:

????Order of Battle:Each market has a finite number of acquirers, and a finite number of deal-makers, each looking to fill specific product/market holes. So determining who specifically to target and talk to is not an incalculable problem. For a specific startup this list is probably a few hundred names.

????Wide Adoption:Startups that win in the bubble will be those that get wide adoption (using freemium, viral growth, low costs, etc.) and massive distribution (i.e. Facebook, Android/Apple App store). They will focus on getting massive user bases first, and let the revenue follow later.

????Visibility:During the Lean Startup era, the advice was to focus on building the company and avoid hype. Now that advice has changed. Like every bubble, this is a game of musical chairs. While you still need irrational focus on customers for your product, you and your company now need to be everywhere and look larger than life. Show and talk at conferences, be on lots of blogs, use social networks and build a brand. PR may be your new best friend in the new bubble, so invest in it.

Lessons Learned

????? We're in a new wave of startup investing – it's the beginning of another bubble

????? Rules for liquidity for startups and investors are different in bubbles

????? Pay attention to what those rules are and how to play by them

????? Unlike the last bubble this one is not about selling "vision" or concepts

????? You have to deliver. That requires building a company using Agile and Customer Development

????? Startups that master speed, tempo and pivot cycle time will win

????Steve Blank is the author of "The Four Steps to the Epiphany," which details his customer development process for minimizing risk and optimizing chances for startup success. A retired serial entrepreneur, Steve teaches at Stanford University, U.C. Berkeley's Haas School of Business and Columbia. His book and a longer version of this story can be found at www.steveblank