????前不久的一個晚上，就在美國投資者還在熟睡的時候，最近一樁“黑天鵝事件”可能又降臨到了他們的生活中。這起事件源自日本福島市，它位于東京以北140英里，這里的福島第一核電站在震后發生了嚴重泄露，東京電力公司（Tokyo Electric Power Co.）的工人們正在拼命采取措施，阻止危機升級。

????東京時間15號早上，福島第一核電站再次傳來爆炸聲，這已經是過去幾天里的第三次爆炸了。在這次爆炸后，日本政府承認， 2號反應堆的鋼筋混凝土保護罩已經出現了破損。這個保護罩對于2號反應堆來說極為重要，因為它里面就是核燃料棒。爆炸發生后，核電站外面的輻射水平出現了猛增。東京電力公司撤走了福島第一核電站的大部分員工，只有50人留了下來（或許是抽簽決定的），他們拼命地用消防水龍向三個反應堆里注入海水，試圖給核燃料棒降溫。日本政府已經將疏散區延長到了核電站周邊18英里的半徑。神情嚴肅的首相菅直人當天早上也在一次簡短的全國電視演說中承認，未來還有可能出現更多的輻射泄露。

????日本的主要股指日經指數（Nikkei）應聲暴跌14%，最終稍有回升，當天以11%的跌幅收盤。日本監管機構也暫時停止了東證股價指數（TOPIX）期貨交易。

????近來籠罩在東京股市頭上的恐慌，根植于一個雖然簡單、但卻令人深感擔憂的事實：如果福島第一核電站已經破損的反應堆保護罩最終崩潰，那么發生大范圍的、難以控制的核災難的可能性并非不存在。恐怖的放射云可能被風吹向任何一個方向——跨越國界，甚至跨越大洋。一夜之間，這一切突然都成了可能。而之所以看起來存在著這種可能，就是因為這種可能的確存在。這就是為什么日前上海的A股市場也出現了下跌。

????不過需要指出的是，盡管福島第一核電站的保護罩出現了損壞，不過從目前看來，暫時不會發生上文提到的那種最壞的情況。日本政府在當天傍晚發布了一份聲明，指出福島第一核電站周邊的輻射水平在當天早上猛然激增之后，已經出現了回落。不過工作人員仍在拼命給核燃料棒降溫，以阻止進一步的熔化。再加上保護罩出現了損壞，這給了許多投資者一個恐慌的理由——核災難的可能性就在眼前。

????到目前為止，各路專家對地震和海嘯給日本帶來的經濟影響已經做出了很多標準的分析和推測（短期內對日本的經濟增長造成數額為X的打擊，災后的重建支出又會帶來數額為Y的“刺激”）。不過如果爆發了大范圍的核事故，那么這些分析和推測都將毫無價值。原子塵和核輻射帶來的經濟影響絕對是毀滅性的。

????日本是全球第三大經濟體，如果最壞的情形確然發生了，那么根據輻射的泄露水平，在未來許多年里，日本大部分地區都有可能成為不適合人類居住的地區，日本未來幾年的重建成本可能高達1萬億美元。1986年烏克蘭的切爾諾貝利也發生了核事故，但切爾諾貝利核事故的經濟影響較為有限。而現在日本面臨著損失一大塊國土的可能性，它的經濟影響與切爾諾貝利是不可同日而語的。

????東京位于發生事故的福島第一核電站以南140英里處。拋開投資者的反應不提，這里卻并沒有多少恐慌的跡象。日本人是如此的友好和井然有序，以至于前兩天我的一位外國朋友對我開玩笑道：“日本人一定缺乏恐慌的基因。”不過這種情況在近日可能已經有了一點改變。據日本媒體報道，在東京的便利店里，飯團以及其它熟食的供應已經出現了匱乏。另據《日本經濟新聞》（Nikkei）報道，東京的電池也出現了短缺。

????如果說末日要來了，美國人會買槍支和黃金，而日本人卻會買電池和飯團。（這句話說明了美國人和日本人的性格，不過我想我更理解這句話說明了日本人的哪些特質——日本人極其務實。）

????此前有新聞報導稱輻射已經降至有害水平以下，這條新聞受到了大大的歡迎。現在還不清楚這究竟意味著發生不可控核災難的風險已經消失了，還是降低了。15日早些時候，日本內閣官房長官枝野幸男表示：“目前，可以說我們正在朝著穩定局勢、并在某種程度上可以控制的方向前進。”在這場危機中，枝野幸男已經成了日本政府的發言人。聽到了如此“自信”的宣言，我認識的一些在日外國人立刻以“某種程度上可以控制”的方式抄起電話，訂飛機票逃離這個鬼地方。

????不過到目前為止，我還沒有加入他們。

????譯者：樸成奎

????As American investors slept last night, the latest `Black Swan' event may have fluttered into their lives. It was birthed in the city of Fukushima, 140 miles north of Tokyo, where workers for Tokyo Electric Power Co., the embattled operator of the crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant, desperately tried to contain an escalating crisis.

????After an explosion early this morning Tokyo time at the plant -- the third in the last four days -- the Japanese government later acknowledged that the vitally important containment vessel at reactor unit 2 -- the steel and concrete vault that is the last line of defense should the nuclear fuel rods inside the vessel melt down -- had been damaged. Radiation levels outside the plant spiked. TEPCO sent most of its workers at the vast facility home, while 50 remained behind (talk about drawing the short straw...), desperately trying to cool down the fuel rods in three reactors by spraying in seawater with fire hoses. Authorities extended an evacuation zone around the plant out to an 18-mile radius, and a grim Prime Minister Naoto Kan acknowledged this morning in a brief, nationally televised address that more radiation leakage appeared likely.

????The Nikkei, Japan's main stock index, promptly collapsed, plunging 14% before recovering a bit and ending the day down 11%. For a while Tokyo regulators halted trading in the TOPIX futures market.

????The utter fear that gripped the Tokyo market today was rooted in a single, deeply troubling reality: should the damaged containment vessel fail at Fukushima Dai Ichi, a full-bore, uncontained nuclear melt down was not inconceivable. The specter of a nuclear cloud, blowing whatever direction the wind might take it -- across borders or even across oceans -- suddenly seemed like a possibility. And it seemed that way, because it is. That's why the A shares market in Shanghai tanked today, too.

????The worst-case scenario, it's important to say, is not at this point a likelihood, even with the damaged containment vessel. Indeed, this evening in Tokyo the government issued a statement saying that radiation levels around the plant had dropped back down after the sharp spike this morning. But the frantic effort to cool the nuclear fuel rods to prevent further melting, and the fact that there is damage to the containment vessel, gave investors a pretty good reason to panic: the possibility of nuclear disaster is there.

????A full-bore nuclear event would render null and void all the standard issue analyses/guesstimates done so far about the economic impact of Japan's tsunami and earthquake (a short-term blow of 'X' amount to growth followed by "stimulus" 'Y' from all the reconstruction spending.) The economic 'fallout' from real, actual nuclear fallout would be nothing short of devastating.

????Depending on how much radiation might escape, it could make large parts of the third-biggest economy on the planet uninhabitable for years. Already, worst-case scenarios had the cost of reconstruction costing $1 trillion over several years. A nuclear accident in a place like Chernobyl, in the Ukraine in 1986, is one thing. There the economic damage was limited. But the possibility of losing a chunk of Japan is quite another.

????Tokyo is 140 miles south of the crippled nuclear plant, and -- investor reactions aside -- there had been little evidence of panic here. Indeed, the Japanese people are so polite and orderly that a foreign friend of mine today joked that they "must lack the panic gene." But that might have changed a bit today. Japanese press reports had convenience stores in Tokyo running low of things like onigiri (rice balls) and other prepared in advance foods. Batteries, according to the Nikkei Kezai Shimbun, are also in short supply.

????In the United States, when the end appears to beckon, we buy guns and gold. In Japan, they buy batteries and rice balls. (I think I understand more about what that says about them than it does about us; the Japanese are nothing if not practical.)

????News that the radiation levels had dropped below harmful levels was welcome. Whether that means an uncontained meltdown was now out of the question -- or even less likely -- was not clear. Earlier in the day, Yukio Edano, Japan's chief cabinet secretary, who is the Japanese government's public face in this crisis, had said, "At this point, we can say we are moving in the direction of stabilizing the situation in a certain, managed manner." That ringing vote of confidence prompted a few expats I know to -- in 'a certain, managed manner' -- grab the phone and make plane reservations to get the hell out of here.

????I'm not among them. Yet.