????它已經造出一輛了，那就是2008年發布的Roadster。這輛車線條流暢，風馳電掣，符合特斯拉開發豪華電動汽車這一細分市場的戰略。從今年開始，特斯拉已經售出了1,500輛這種車。現在，這家公司得證明它能大批銷售這種非凡的車，讓公司盈利。這并非易事，即便2010年特斯拉公司上市后就做好了上線生產的規劃，并基本準備就緒。

????上周二，作為上市公司的特斯拉趕在其首次發布年報前發布了其全年盈利的新聞稿。該公司的虧損加劇了——特斯拉所報告的2010年第四財季凈虧損為5,140萬美元，而2009同期的虧損額為2,420萬美元，那時它還是一家私營公司。

????從積極面看，該公司收入增長了95%。第四財季，特斯拉的收入從2009年的1860萬美元增長到3630萬美元。

????這一消息讓市場感到振奮。很多分析師將該公司的評級調為持有或買入，這既是受到公司收入增長的鼓舞，也是因為了解到特斯拉似乎走上了正軌，能按其宣稱的那樣在2012年中期推出S型轎車。

????不過，市場也許忽略了特斯拉在抵達目標之路上可能碰到的重大挑戰。來自Capstone投資公司的替代性能源高級分析師卡特爾?德瑞斯克爾表示，汽車生產需要巨額資金。

????德瑞斯克爾說，特斯拉現在不差錢。2009年6月，公司從美國能源部獲得總額達4.65億美元的政府低息貸款。目前大部分錢是來自于此。但繼續往前推進的話，特斯拉比起競爭對手來就會有點囊中羞澀了。在推出新車的過程中，常常會碰到類似“減速裝置”的各種困難。

????德瑞斯克爾表示：“他們需要將這款車打造得完美無缺，才能讓特斯拉公司為人矚目。而因為種種原因，這“比人們一般所認為的要困難得多”。其中一個原因就是，對于非自產的配件，特斯拉無法獲得大宗采購折扣。

????特斯拉計劃2012全年推出20,000臺車。這不算大數目。德瑞斯克爾說：“美國弗林特或蘭辛的郊區汽車廠一個月就能生產就么多輛車。”

????并且，跟進入電動汽車市場的來自底特律和外國的公司不同，特斯拉在生產上會有一些劣勢。其中一大劣勢就是無法獲得大型汽車廠商所掌握的雄厚資本。

????而這些廠商也正在進入電動汽車市場。通用汽車的雪佛蘭Volt和日產的Leaf都計劃與特斯拉的S型車在幾乎同一時間上線。通用與日產都是汽車業巨頭，兩者的市值都有約500億美元。相形之下，特斯拉上市后的市值預計在幾十億美元。

????特斯拉的目標客戶是想買豪華電動汽車的小眾消費者。Leaf在扣除稅收抵免后的價格將是25,280美元，Volt扣除稅收抵免后的價格將超過32,000美元，相比之下，特斯拉S型電動車此價格將近50,000美元。

????德瑞斯克爾表示：“確實有一部分人想要綠色環保并開上一輛很酷的車。但這并不意味著值得為這么一款車投入巨額資金。如果這款車沒能成功，即便是時間安排耽誤上幾個季度，也將帶來現金流的巨額不足。”

????他還表示，新車型總是會受到拖延，特別是在安全評估的環節上，而電動汽車市場的情況尤其起伏不定。

????預測客戶對電動汽車的需求頗有難度，尤其是考慮到市面上已有其他類型的環保汽車，比如混合動力車和插電式電動車。

????特斯拉的主要優勢一直是電動汽車電池及傳動系統的差壓變送器（stellar）技術。傳動系統是從引擎實際傳送動力并輸送到車輪的部件。據德瑞斯克爾所說，特斯拉在這些方面的技術屬于業內頂尖。而其他汽車廠商也正在獲取這一技術。比如，特斯拉正與豐田公司合作，計劃由特斯拉為豐田的新款Rav4開發傳動系統。

????這一合作對作為公司的特斯拉而言是個利好，但像豐田這樣正在利用特斯拉電池技術的汽車廠商也正在推出潛在的競爭性產品。比如，豐田仍然在制造其混合動力車普銳斯（Prius）的另一系列，該車預計于2011年夏季到2012年間投放市場。其中一款就是普銳斯插電式混合動力車。該車不像電動汽車，它無需特別的充電站。這款插電式混合動力車能讓豐田也趕上潮流，直至電動汽車市場大到足夠豐田盈利之日。

????德瑞斯克爾表示，不是說特斯拉不能盈利，它可以做到。但是與競爭對手相比，它承受風險的能力更小。如果電動汽車需求稍有起伏，或出現了生產延誤，特斯拉就可能遭受重大打擊。

????德瑞斯克爾說：“要盈利還為時尚早。在他們大規模生產出其王牌汽車前，他們實際上只是家設計公司。”

????譯者：清遠

????It already built one, the Roadster, which it released in 2008. It's a slick, fast automobile, in line with Tesla's (TSLA) strategy to tap into a niche market-luxury electric vehicles. As of the beginning of this year, Tesla had sold 1,500 of them. Now, it needs to prove that it can sell great cars on a scale that will make the company profitable. That's going to be challenging, even though Tesla is mostly on track for the rollouts it outlined after it went public in 2010.

????On Tuesday, Tesla issued a press release on its full year earnings, ahead of filing its first annual report as a publica company. Its losses grew -- Tesla reported a net loss of $51.4 million for the fourth quarter of 2010 compared to a loss of $24.2 million for the same time last year, when it was still a private company.

????On the upside, it boosted revenue by 95%. Tesla's fourth quarter revenue grew to $36.3 million from $18.6 million in 2009.

????That pleased the market. Many analysts rated the company a hold or a buy, heartened by the fact that the company's revenue is up and that Tesla seems on track to launch its Model S sedan when it says it will, in the middle of 2012.

????But the market may be overlooking some of the major challenges that Tesla could face in getting all the way home. Car production takes a tremendous amount of capital, notes Carter Driscoll, a senior alternative energy analyst with Capstone Investments.

????Tesla has enough now, Driscoll says, much of it from the $465 million in low-interest government loans that the company received from the US Department of Energy back in June 2009. But going forward, Tesla will have less of a cash cushion than competitors. In the process of rolling out new cars, there are often speed bumps.

????"They need to execute on this model perfectly to get Tesla on the radar screen," says Driscoll. "It's just so much harder than people recognize," for several reasons, one of which is that Tesla won't get volume purchasing discounts for the parts it doesn't manufacture.

????Tesla plans to release 20,000 vehicles for the entire year in 2012, which isn't very many. "That's a good month at a suburban facility in Flint or in Lancing," Driscoll says.

????And unlike the Detroit and foreign companies entering the EV market, Tesla will have some manufacturing disadvantages. The main one is lack of access to the kind of capital that huge auto manufacturers have on hand.

????Those auto manufacturers are getting in on the EV market. GM's (GM) Chevy Volt and Nissan's Leaf are both scheduled to go online around the same time as the Tesla Model-S. GM and Nissan are power players in the automotive world, both with market caps around fifty billions dollars. Tesla, in comparison, was estimated to have a market around a couple billion when it went public.

????The company targets the niche consumers who want luxury electric vehicles. Compared to the Leaf, which will cost $25,280 after the tax savings and the Volt, which will cost over $32,000 after tax savings, Tesla's model S will cost right under $50,000.

????"There's a segment of the population that wants to be green and wants to be in a very sexy car," says Driscoll. "It doesn't outweigh the tremendous amount of capital you have to put into one car. If that car doesn't succeed, even if that time frame gets delayed by a couple of quarters, you're talking a big shortfall in cash flow."

????New models of cars get delayed all the time, especially with safety reviews, he says, and the electric vehicle market is particularly volatile.

????It's difficult to predict consumer demand for EVs, especially since there are other forms of green cars out there for consumers, such as hybrid cars and plug-in electric vehicles.

????Tesla's main strength has been stellar technology for electric car batteries and powertrains-the portion of the car that actually transfers energy from the engine and transmission to the wheels. Tesla's tech for these parts is some of the best in the business, according to Driscoll. Other car companies are accessing that technology too. For example, Telsa partnered with Toyota, the plan being for Tesla to develop the powertrain for Toyota's new Rav4 car.

????The partnership is great for Tesla as a company, but carmakers such as Toyota that are capitalizing off of Tesla's battery tech are also pushing products that could potentially compete. For example, Toyota is still building another family of its hybrid car the Prius, set to hit the market between summer of 2011 and 2012. One of which is a Prius plug-in hybrid, which, unlike an electric car, doesn't require a special charging station. The plug-in hybrid and could tide Toyota over until the electric vehicle market becomes big enough to profit off of it.

????Not that Tesla can't become profitable, it can, Driscoll says. But it's working with a tighter margin of error than competitors. If the demand for electric vehicles switches a bit, or if there are production delays, Tesla could get slammed.

????"They're a long way away from profitability," says Driscoll. "Until they produce vehicle number one on a commercial scale, they're essentially a design shop."